| 用逐步回归方法预报番禺年降水量 |
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| 引用本文： | 陈慧娴,黄露菁,陈创买.用逐步回归方法预报番禺年降水量[J].广东气象,2004(4):7-9. |
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| 作者姓名： | 陈慧娴 黄露菁 陈创买 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 广州市番禺区气象局,广州,511400
2. 中山大学大气科学系,广州,510275 |
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| 摘 要： | 在番禺实测资料的基础上 ,对 5 0年番禺年降水序列进行趋势分析和预测 ,发现 :⑴该序列不存在明显的变化趋势 ;⑵用主分量逐步回归思路所建立预测方程 ,复相关系数高即对样本的拟合误差小 ,预测效果较显著 ;⑶通过对高度场和海温场的分区分季节的场的主分量分析 ,获得广泛影响因素的重要信息
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| 关 键 词： | 逐步回归分析 主分量分析 年降水量 广州市番禺区 |
| 文章编号： | 1007-6190(2004)04-0007-03 |
Annual Precipitation Prediction for Panyu with a Successive Regression Model |
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| Chen Huixian,Huang Lujing,Chen Chuangmai.Annual Precipitation Prediction for Panyu with a Successive Regression Model[J].Journal of Guangdong Meteorology,2004(4):7-9. |
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| Authors: | Chen Huixian Huang Lujing Chen Chuangmai |
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| Institution: | Chen Huixian1 Huang Lujing2 Chen Chuangmai2 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the observations from Panyu, a trend analysis and forecast on 50-year precipitation time series is demonstrated in this paper and several results are as followed: 1) No obvious trend on the time series. 2) The forecast equation established with principal component and successive regression analysis can have a higher multiple linear correlation coefficient, i.e. smaller fitting error and better forecast. 3) The principal component analysis on the potential high field and the sea surface temperature field, region by region and season by season, can help retrieve important information out of the comprehensive contributing factors. |
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| Keywords: | Successive Regression analysis Principal Component Analysis Annual precipitation Panyu District of Guangzhou |
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