Empirical Modeling of TSI: A Critical View |
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| Authors: | Giuliana De Toma Oran R White |
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| Institution: | (1) NCAR, High Altitude Obs., Boulder, CO, 80301, U.S.A.;(2) Lazy FW Ranch, Mancos, CO, 81328, U.S.A. |
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| Abstract: | Solar empirical models based on regression of two variability indices for radiation from the photosphere and chromosphere
fit total solar irradiance (TSI) observations with accuracy comparable to the precision reported for the observations themselves.
However, the physical meaning of the fitting coefficients and their stability during different phases of the solar cycle has
not been examined in detail. We test the stability of the coefficients in regression models of the VIRGO TSI observations
over the nine years from the minimum of Cycle 23 in 1996 through the maximum to 2005. We also show how the coefficients converge
to the ‘`best fit’' using a search in the coefficient space. Analysis of TSI variability in different phases of this cycle
shows little change in regression models as long as the time periods used in the regression are long enough to show the slow
solar cycle variation in TSI. We extend our analysis to TSI observations from ERB, ACRIM2, ACRIM3, DIARAD, and TIM. The regression
models from these time series show large systematic differences in fitting coefficients for the plage and sunspot indices
that we used. These differences are significantly larger than the estimated uncertainties in the coefficients and point to
the difficulty of combining observations from different instruments to create an accurate composite TSI record over several
solar cycles. Our results clearly demonstrate the improvement in precision of TSI measurements from the Nimbus 7 ERB in Cycle
22 to the latest SORCE TIM data in Cycle 23. |
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