Evaluating the spatiotemporal variations of water budget across China over 1951–2006 using IBIS model |
| |
| Authors: | Qiuan Zhu Hong Jiang Xiaohua Wei Changhui Peng Xiuqing Fang Shirong Liu Guomo Zhou Shuquan Yu Weiming Ju |
| |
| Institution: | 1. International Institute for Earth System Science, Nanjing University, Hankou Road 22, Nanjing 210093, China;2. International Research Center of Spatial Ecology, Zhejiang Forestry University, Linan 311300, China;3. Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of British Columbia (Okanagan), 3333 University Way, Kelowna, BC, V1V 1V7 Canada;4. Institute of Environment Sciences, University of Quebec at Montreal, Case postale 8888, Succursale Centre‐Ville, Montreal, QC, H3C 3P8 Canada;5. State Key Laboratory of Hydrology, Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing, 210098, China;6. Institute of Forest Ecology and Environment, Chinese Academy of Forestry, Beijing 100091, China |
| |
| Abstract: | The Integrated Biosphere Simulator is used to evaluate the spatial and temporal patterns of the crucial hydrological variables run‐off and actual evapotranspiration (AET)] of the water balance across China for the period 1951–2006 including a precipitation analysis. Results suggest three major findings. First, simulated run‐off captured 85% of the spatial variability and 80% of the temporal variability for 85 hydrological gauges across China. The mean relative errors were within 20% for 66% of the studied stations and within 30% for 86% of the stations. The Nash–Sutcliffe coefficients indicated that the quantity pattern of run‐off was also captured acceptably except for some watersheds in southwestern and northwestern China. The possible reasons for underestimation of run‐off in the Tibetan plateau include underestimation of precipitation and uncertainties in other meteorological data due to complex topography, and simplified representations of the soil depth attribute and snow processes in the model. Second, simulated AET matched reasonably with estimated values calculated as the residual of precipitation and run‐off for watersheds controlled by the hydrological gauges. Finally, trend analysis based on the Mann–Kendall method indicated that significant increasing and decreasing patterns in precipitation appeared in the northwest part of China and the Yellow River region, respectively. Significant increasing and decreasing trends in AET were detected in the Southwest region and the Yangtze River region, respectively. In addition, the Southwest region, northern China (including the Heilongjiang, Liaohe, and Haihe Basins), and the Yellow River Basin showed significant decreasing trends in run‐off, and the Zhemin hydrological region showed a significant increasing trend. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. |
| |
| Keywords: | IBIS model water budget spatiotemporal change China |
|
|
