| 三峡库区滑坡台阶状位移趋势预测的警戒速度方法 |
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| 引用本文： | 李德营,殷坤龙.三峡库区滑坡台阶状位移趋势预测的警戒速度方法[J].水文地质工程地质,2012,39(4):98-101. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李德营 殷坤龙 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学(武汉)工程学院,武汉,430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金优秀青年教师基金，国家自然科学基金资助项目 |
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| 摘 要： | 对不同类型的35个滑坡进行统计分析,发现滑坡临滑前加速度和速度符合Voight模型的幂函数关系。由于无法准确判断三峡库区具台阶状位移特征的滑坡何时处于最后加速失稳阶段,故不能直接应用该模型进行预报。根据台阶状位移特征的滑坡变形特征,本文采用了基于Voight模型的警戒速度方法。该方法是基于Voight模型采用非线性回归分析求得模型参数,按不同风险级别要求求得紧急状态、警戒状态、提前警戒状态的速度阀值,并与实际监测的速度对比去预报滑坡所处的危险等级。采用警戒速度方法对白水河滑坡和新滩滑坡进行了分析,发现预测结果与实际较为接近,预测效果较好。
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| 关 键 词： | 滑坡预报 三峡库区 警戒速度 Voight模型 加速蠕变 |
Alert velocity method for landslides with step-like deformation in the Three Gorges Reservoir area |
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| LI De-ying
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YIN Kun-long.Alert velocity method for landslides with step-like deformation in the Three Gorges Reservoir area[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2012,39(4):98-101. |
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| Authors: | LI De-ying YIN Kun-long |
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| Institution: | (Faculty of Engineering,China University of Geosciences,Wuhan 430074,China) |
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| Abstract: | Voight’s relation approaching the failure is found through the analysis of landslide acceleration and velocity of 35 different landslides.The final acceleration phase of the landslides cannot be identified due to the step-like deformation of the landslides in the Three Gorges Reservoir area,so the failure time of the landslides cannot be directly predicted with the model.Therefore,a much simpler and more practical method has been suggested to assess the landslide phases by means of velocity threshold values on the basis of the Voight model.According to different demands of risk level,alert velocity(corresponding to 30,15 and 7 days before predicted failure) can be computed according to the Voight’s model and the parameters of the method are obtained with the nonlinear regression.The feasibility of the method is validated through the case analyses of the Xintan landslide and the Baishuihe landslide.The results show that the prediction and the monitoring data are very similar and the method plays an important role in predicting the landslides with step-like deformation. |
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| Keywords: | landslide prediction Three Gorges Reservoir alert velocity Voight model acceleration creep |
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