A Markov-chain model for winterstrength in the upper Danube Region |
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| Authors: | Konrad Cehak |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute of Meteorology and Geophysics of the University of Vienna and Central Office of Meteorology and Geodynamics in Vienna, Vienna, Austria |
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| Abstract: | A Markov-chain model is fitted to the series of winter-strength parameters of five stations in the upper Danube Region. The
validity of the model is tested by an appropriate Gaussian test-statistic. Having calculated the matrices of transition probabilities,
boundaries for them are derived from the theory of Markov-chains as well as means of the first transition times with their
standard deviations; further, forecasts are derived for the next but one winter. As in all cases the standard deviations for
prognostic values are rather large one should be very careful in making annual forecasts, which is also demonstrated by a
testforecast. |
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