| Abstract: | The stability of flood channels has attracted considerable attention because of their complicated interactions with the prevailing hydrodynamics and importance in ship navigation. This research examines long-term morphodynamic evolution in the Yangtze Estuary from 1861 to 2002 and the equilibrium mechanism of the Xinqiao Channel in the Yangtze Estuary by digitizing 15 selected maritime charts and calculating the volume of the channel. Although the total period of channel development is much longer than the historical data used in this paper, three stages are identified during the study period: the first embryonic stage (66 years), the second formation stage (33 years) and the third equilibrium stage (45 years). Variations in coastline location, channel volume, and hydrodynamics in the channel during the three stages indicate that the channel equilibrium was reached and maintained when the channel direction was aligned with the direction of offshore tidal wave propagation. Variations in river and sediment discharges affect erosion and deposition in the channel and thus channel geometry. However, future reduction in sediment supply by 10–33% due to the ongoing river engineering projects would increase the volume of the Xinqiao Channel only by 1–3%. It seems unlikely that the above change in sediment discharge will disrupt the equilibrium of the Xinqiao Channel. |
