Modelling the impact of climate extremes: an overview of the MICE project |
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| Authors: | C E Hanson J P Palutikof M T J Livermore L Barring M Bindi J Corte-Real R Durao C Giannakopoulos P Good T Holt Z Kundzewicz G C Leckebusch M Moriondo M Radziejewski J Santos P Schlyter M Schwarb I Stjernquist U Ulbrich |
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| Institution: | 1.Climatic Research Unit, School of Environmental Sciences,University of East Anglia,Norwich,UK;2.Hadley Centre,Met Office,Exeter,UK;3.Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystems Analysis, Geobiosphere Science Centre,Lund University,Lund,Sweden;4.Department of Agronomy and Land Management,University of Florence,Florence,Italy;5.Instituto de Ciênca Aplicada e Tecnologia, Faculdade de Ciêncas,Universidade Lisboa,Lisbon,Portugal;6.National Observatory of Athens,Institute of Environmental Research & Sustainable Development,P. Penteli, Athens,Greece;7.Research Centre for Agricultural and Forest Environment,Polish Academy of Sciences,Poznan,Poland;8.Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research,Potsdam,Germany;9.Institute for Meteorology,Freie Universit?t Berlin,Berlin,Germany;10.Faculty of Mathematics and Computer Science,Adam Mickiewicz University,Pozna?,Poland;11.Departamento de Física, Centro de Geofísica, Colégio Luís António Verney,Universidade de évora,évora,Portugal;12.Departamento de Física,Universidade de Trás-os-Montes e Alto Douro,Vila Real,Portugal;13.Department of Physical Geography and Quaternary Geology,Stockholm University,Stockholm,Sweden;14.Institute of Geography,University of Bern,Bern,Switzerland |
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| Abstract: | This paper provides an overview of the aims, objectives, research activities undertaken, and a selection of results generated in the European Commission-funded project entitled “Modelling the Impact of Climate Extremes” (MICE) – a pan-European end-to-end assessment, from climate model to impact model, of the potential impacts of climate change on a range of economic sectors important to the region. MICE focussed on changes in temperature, precipitation and wind extremes. The research programme had three main themes – the evaluation of climate model performance, an assessment of the potential future changes in the occurrence of extremes, and an examination of the impacts of changes in extremes on six activity sectors using a blend of quantitative modelling and expert judgement techniques. MICE culminated in a large stakeholder-orientated workshop, the aim of which was not only to disseminate project results but also to develop new stakeholder networks, whose expertise can be drawn on in future projects such as ENSEMBLES. MICE is part of a cluster of three projects, all related to European climate change and its impacts. The other projects in the cluster are PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional Scenarios and Uncertainties for Defining European Climate Change Risks and Effects) and STARDEX (Statistical and Regional Dynamical Downscaling of Extremes for European Regions). |
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