Recent reliable observations and improved tests on synthetic catalogs with spatiotemporal clustering verify precursory decelerating–accelerating seismicity |
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| Authors: | G F Karakaisis C B Papazachos E M Scordilis |
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| Institution: | 1. Department of Geophysics, School of Geology, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece
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| Abstract: | We examined the seismic activity which preceded six strong mainshocks that occurred in the Aegean (M?=?6.4–6.9, 33–43° N, 19–28° E) and two strong mainshocks that occurred in California (M?=?6.5–7.1, 32–41° N, 115–125° W) during 1995–2010. We find that each of these eight mainshocks has been preceded by a pronounced decelerating and an equally easily identifiable accelerating seismic sequence with the time to the mainshock. The two preshock sequences of each mainshock occurred in separate space, time, and magnitude windows. In all eight cases, very low decelerating seismicity, as well as very low accelerating seismicity, is observed around the actual epicenter of the ensuing mainshock. Statistical tests on the observed measures of decelerating, q d, and accelerating, q a, seismicity against similar measures calculated using synthetic catalogs with spatiotemporal clustering based on the ETAS model show that there is an almost zero probability for each one of the two preshock sequences which preceded each of the eight mainshocks to be random. These results support the notion that every strong shallow mainshock is preceded by a decelerating and an accelerating seismic sequence with predictive properties for the ensuing mainshock. |
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