| 2021—2050年河南省夏玉米净灌溉需水量对气候变化的响应 |
| |
| 引用本文： | 闫旖君,徐建新,肖恒.2021—2050年河南省夏玉米净灌溉需水量对气候变化的响应[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(2):138-148. |
| |
| 作者姓名： | 闫旖君 徐建新 肖恒 |
| |
| 作者单位： | 1.中国农业科学院研究生院，北京 100081；
2 华北水利水电大学水利学院，郑州 450045；
3 水资源高效利用与保障工程河南省协同创新中心，郑州 450045 |
| |
| 基金项目： | 国家科技支撑计划资助项目;水利部公益性行业科研专项经费资助项目;河南省高等学校重点科研资助项目 |
| |
| 摘 要： | 基于河南省17个气象站点观测资料和25个CMIP5模式预估数据，采用BCC/RCG-WG 3.0天气发生器构建区域气候变化情景，集合评估了RCP4.5情景下2021—2050年夏玉米净灌溉需水量较1961—2000年的变化及其空间分布。结果表明：全生育期内气温升高1.8℃，降水增加3.6%，引起作物需水量和有效降水量分别增加5.1%和1.5%，净灌溉需水量增加5.6%。受气温升高和降水减少的双重影响，播种－拔节期净灌溉需水量增幅较大，达到21.3%；拔节－乳熟期尽管有效降水量增加3.0%，但这并不足以抵消气温升高引起的作物需水量增加5.1%的影响，净灌溉需水量仍然增加3.4%；乳熟－成熟期，由于有效降水量增加8.2%，超过了作物需水量增加7.4%的影响，净灌溉需水量减少1.4%。豫西三门峡、孟津和豫西南栾川、西峡等4站在各生育期内净灌溉需水量均有不同程度的增加。
|
| 关 键 词： | 夏玉米 气候变化 净灌溉需水量 天气发生器 |
| 收稿时间： | 2016-08-22 |
| 修稿时间： | 2016-12-12 |
Summer Maize Net Irrigation Water Requirement to Climate Change in Henan Province in China During 2021-2050 |
| |
| Yan Yijun,Xu Jianxin,Xiao Heng.Summer Maize Net Irrigation Water Requirement to Climate Change in Henan Province in China During 2021-2050[J].Advances in Climate Change,2017,13(2):138-148. |
| |
| Authors: | Yan Yijun Xu Jianxin Xiao Heng |
| |
| Abstract: | Based on the observations at 17 typical stations and the monthly outputs of 25 CMIP5 models, the impact of climate change on summer maize net irrigation water requirement in Henan province in China during 2021-2050 was assessed. Firstly, the daily maximum temperature, minimum temperature and precipitation in the future period (2021-2050) under the RCP4.5 scenario were generated by using the quantile mapping method and the weather generator BCC/RCG-WG 3.0. Then the difference between the crop water requirement and the effective precipitation in growth stages (namely, the net irrigation water requirement, NIWR) was calculated and compared to the baseline period (1961-2000). The results show that in the whole growth period, annual mean temperature and precipitation could increase by 1.8℃ and 3.6%, respectively, which might lead to increases in both water requirement (5.1%) and effective precipitation (1.5%). The projected future NIWR is likely to increase by 5.6%. Due to the temperature increase and precipitation decrease in sowing-jointing stage, the NIWR could increase by 21.3%. In jointing-milk maturity stage, the increased effective precipitation (3.0%) is not enough to offset the increased crop water requirement (5.1%) derived from temperature increase, the NIWR could still increase by 3.4%. However, in milk maturity-maturity stage, the NIWR decreases by 1.4% with a more increase of 8.2% in effective precipitation and a less increase (7.4%) in water requirement. The NIWR could increase in every growth stage at Sanmenxia, Mengjin, Luanchuan and Xixia stations in the western and southwestern of study area. |
| |
| Keywords: | summer maize climate change net irrigation water requirement (NIWR) weather generator |
|
| 点击此处可从《气候变化研究进展》浏览原始摘要信息 |
| 点击此处可从《气候变化研究进展》下载免费的PDF全文 |
