The research of a comprehensive program for earthquake prediction with seismological methods |
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| Authors: | Wei Wang and Yuanzhong Lu |
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| Institution: | (1) Seismological Bureau of Anhui Province, 230031 Hefei, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the MYCIN inexact inference method in Expert System is applied to comprehensive earthquake prediction. And
it is proposed that the methods of determining various certainty factors, correcting correlation between anomalous evidences
and computing comprehensive certainty factor of occurrence of some moderate or strong earthquake. By use of these methods,
18 earthquake cases since 1966 in North China is tested with seismological anomalies in different seismogenic stage, and the
comprehensive certainty factors of occurrence of some moderate or strong earthquake are computed. At last some problems in
application are discussed.
The Chinese version of this paper appeared in the Chinese edition ofActa Seismologica Sinica,13, 328–337, 1991. |
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| Keywords: | expert system (ES) MYCIN inexact inference method certainty factor (CF) evidence rule |
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