| MOS方法在短时要素预报中的应用与检验 |
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| 引用本文： | 李文娟,郦敏杰.MOS方法在短时要素预报中的应用与检验[J].气象与环境学报,2013,29(2):12-18. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李文娟 郦敏杰 |
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| 作者单位： | 1．浙江省气象台，浙江 杭州310017；2.杭州市气象局，浙江 杭州310051 |
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| 基金项目： | 浙江省气象局推广项目“短时精细化气象要素预报系统研制”(2008TG11);浙江省气象局项目“基于卫星遥感的大雾自动识别技术”(2010YB01)共同资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 通过对MM5数值预报产品的释用，将MOS统计方法应用到短时要素预报中，综合利用MM5数值预报产品、自动站实况数据和雷达数据等资料，建立降水和温度的4 h预报模型；降水作为不连续变量，将其通过建立降水可能函数的方法转化为连续变量，利用统计预报方法，可以达到定量预报的目的。通过对4140个时次的样本进行检验。结果表明：MOS预报结果较MM5直接输出结果整体有所改进，当数值模式误差较大时，统计方法显示出一定的优势；降水预报检验结果显示，TS评分为65%，预报正确率PC为91%。降水明显的样本(3 h雨量>5 mm)平均误差在8 mm以内，弱降水样本(3 h雨量<3 mm)平均误差在1 mm以内，预报方程对非雨日样本的整体预报效果较好，优于MM5模式预报，预报正确率高达98%，但对流性降水仍是预报难点；对于温度预报，20-08时段误差较小、平均在1.0℃以内，而11-17时、误差平均在1.5℃左右，但经过误差的季节订正，可以控制在1.0℃左右。
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| 关 键 词： | MOS统计方法 短时要素预报 降水可能函数 TS评分 MOS统计方法 短时要素预报 降水可能函数 TS评分 |
Application and verification of MOS statistical method for forecasting of short time meteorological elements |
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| LI Wen-juan,LI Min-jie.Application and verification of MOS statistical method for forecasting of short time meteorological elements[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2013,29(2):12-18. |
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| Authors: | LI Wen-juan LI Min-jie |
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| Institution: | 1.Zhejiang Meteorological Observatory, Hangzhou 310017, China; 2. Hangzhou Meteorological Service, Hangzhou 310051, China |
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| Abstract: | Through the interpretation of MM5 numerical prediction products, the MOS statistical method was ap- plied to forecast short time meteorological elements. A forecast model of precipitation and temperature with 4 hours interval was established in terms of MM5 numerical prediction products, the observational data from automatic weather stations and the radar data. Precipitation was a discontinuous variable, but it could be translated into a con- tinuous variable by establishing a possibility function of precipitation. Thus, quantitative forecasting could be real- ized. 4140 samples were tested in this paper. The results show that the MOS method is better than the MM5 meth- od, especially for the cases when errors with the MM5 method are higher. According to the test of precipitation pre- diction, TS score is 65% and the accuracy reaches 91%. The average error is less than 8mm for heavy rain samples （three hours accumulated rainfall 〉 5 mm）, while it is 1 mm or less for weak precipitation samples （three hours accumulated rainfall 〈 1 mm）. The MOS method has the higher accuracy with 98% for the prediction the non-rain day, and it is better than the MM5 prediction. However, the convective precipitation is still hard to forecast. For the temperature model,the error is less than 1.0 ℃ from 20.00 to 08.00,while it is 1.5 ℃ from 11.00 to 17：00. The error can be controlled about 1.0 ℃after season corrections. |
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| Keywords: | MOS statistical method Forecasting of short term meteorological elements Possibility function of pre-cipitation TS score |
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