Joint occurrence period of wind speed and wave height based on both service term and risk probability |
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| Authors: | DONG Sheng FAN Dunqiu TAO Shanshan |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, P.R.China
2. College of Engineering, Ocean University of China, Qingdao 266100, P.R.China;Drilling Technology Research Institute, Shengli Oil Field, Dongying 257017, P.R.China |
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| Abstract: | Return periods calculated for different environmental conditions are key parameters for ocean platform design. Many codes for offshore structure design give no consideration about the correlativity among multi-loads and over-estimate design values. This frequently leads to not only higher investment but also distortion of structural reliability analysis. The definition of design return period in existing codes and industry criteria in China are summarized. Then joint return periods of different ocean environmental parameters are determined from the view of service term and danger risk. Based on a bivariate equivalent maximum entropy distribution, joint design parameters are estimated for the concomitant wave height and wind speed at a site in the Bohai Sea. The calculated results show that even if the return period of each environmental factor, such as wave height or wind speed, is small, their combinations can lead to larger joint return periods. Proper design criteria for joint return period associated with concomitant environmental conditions will reduce structural size and lead to lower investment of ocean platforms for the exploitation of marginal oil field. |
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| Keywords: | wave height wind speed joint return periods service term risk analysis |
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