A new seismic hazard analysis using FOSM algorithms |
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| Institution: | 1. Dept of Civil & Environmental Eng., HKUST, Kowloon, Hong Kong;2. Dept of Geosciences, National Taiwan University, Taipei, Taiwan;1. Université de Lorraine, UMR Institut Elie Cartan, F-54506 Vandoeuvre-lès-Nancy, France;2. INRA, Biogéochimie des Ecosystèmes Forestiers, F-54280 Champenoux, France;3. CIRAD, UMR Eco&Sols, F-34060 Montpellier, France;4. CATIE, Tropical Agricultural Research and Higher Education Center, 7170 Turrialba, Costa Rica;5. Departamento Recursos Naturais, Universidade Estadual de São Paulo, UNESP, Botucatu, SP 18610-307, Brazil;6. USP, Universidade de São Paulo, ESALQ, Departamento de Ciências Atmosféricas, IAG, CEP 05508-900 São Paulo, Brazil;7. Univ. Paris-Sud, Laboratoire Ecologie Systématique et Evolution, UMR8079, Orsay F-91405, France;1. Key Laboratory of Low-grade Energy Utilization Technologies and Systems of Ministry of Education, College of Power Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030, China;2. Key Laboratory of Renewable Energy of Agricultural Ministry, College of Mechanical & Electrical Engineering, Henan Agricultural University, Zhengzhou 450002, China;3. College of Mathematics and Statistics, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400030, China;1. USTC-Birmingham Joint Research Institute in Intelligent Computation and Its Applications, School of Computer Science and Technology, University of Science and Technology of China (USTC), Hefei, Anhui 230027, China;2. Honda Research Institute Europe GmbH, Offenbach 63073, Germany;3. Center of Excellence for Research in Computational Intelligence and Applications (CERCIA), School of Computer Science, University of Birmingham, Edgbaston, Birmingham B15 2TT, UK;1. Clinical Health Sciences, The University of Reading, UK;2. Food and Nutritional Sciences, The University of Reading, UK;3. Comisión de Investigaciones Científicas, Provincia Buenos Aires, Argentina;4. College of Nursing, Midwifery and Healthcare, University of West London, UK |
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| Abstract: | From recent lessons, it is evident that earthquake prediction is immature and impractical as of now. Under the circumstances, seismic hazard analysis is considered a more practical approach for earthquake hazard mitigation, by estimating the annual rate of earthquake ground motions (or seismic hazard) based on seismicity and other geological evidences. Like other earthquake studies for the high-seismicity region around Taiwan, this study aims to conduct a new seismic hazard assessment for the region using the well-established FOSM (first-order second-moment) algorithm, on the record of 55,000 earthquakes observed in the past 110 years. The new seismic hazard analysis from a different perspective shows that the annual rate for earthquake-induced PGA to exceed the current design value (i.e., 0.23g) in two major cities in Taiwan should be relatively low, with it no greater than 0.0006 per year. Besides, the FOSM estimates were found very close to those with Monte Carlo Simulation (MCS), mainly because the skewness of the three random variables (i.e., earthquake magnitude, location, and model error) considered in the probabilistic analysis is not very large. |
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| Keywords: | FOSM algorithms Seismic hazard assessment Strong ground motion Taiwan |
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