Changing extreme sea levels along European coasts |
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| Institution: | 1. Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht, Centre for Materials and Coastal Research, Geesthacht, Germany;2. ISMAR-CNR, Institute of Marine Sciences, Venezia, Italy;3. Environmental Hydraulics Institute “IH Cantabria”, Universidad de Cantabria, Santander, Spain;4. Faculty of Engineering and the Environment and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, United Kingdom;5. KU Leuven Hydraulics Division, Leuven, Belgium;6. Coastal Research and Planning Institute, CORPI, Klaipeda University, Klaipeda, Lithuania;1. ARTELIA Eau & Environnement, 6 rue de Lorraine, 38130 Echirolles, France;2. CEREMA/DTecEMF, 155 rue Pierre Bouguer, 29280 Plouzané, France;3. Université Pierre Mendes-France, Laboratoire Jean Kuntzmann, UMR 5224, BSHM, 1251 avenue centrale, BP 47, 38040 Grenoble Cedex 09, France;1. CSIR-National Institute of Oceanography, Dona Paula, Goa 403004, India;2. National Oceanography Centre, Liverpool, UK;1. KU Leuven Civil Engineering Department, Hydraulics Laboratory, Kasteelpark Arenberg 40, postbus 2448, 3001 Leuven, Belgium;2. CETMEF (Institute for maritime and inland waterways), 134 Rue de Beauvais CS 60039, 60280 Margny-les-Compiègne, France;3. Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (HZG), Max-Planck-Straße 1, 21502 Geesthacht, Germany;4. Faculty of Engineering and the Environment and Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of Southampton, Southampton SO17 1BJ, United Kingdom;5. Hamburg Port Authority (HPA), Neuer Wandrahm 4, 20457 Hamburg, Germany;6. State Key Laboratory of Estuarine and Coastal Research (SKLEC), East China Normal University,3663 N. Zhongshan Rd, 200062 Shanghai, PR China;1. Instituto de Ingeniería, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Cd. Universitaria, 04510 D.F., Mexico;2. Environmental Hydraulics Institute “IH Cantabria”, Universidad de Cantabria, Spain;3. University of Bologna, DICAM, Viale Risorgimento 2, 40136 Bologna, Italy;4. University of Plymouth, Drake Circus, Plymouth PL4 8AA, UK;5. Institute of Oceanology, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences, Parvi Mai Str. 40, P.O. Box 152, 9000 Varna, Bulgaria;6. ICEA, University of Padova, Via Ognissanti 39, 35129 Padova, Italy;7. CORILA, Italy;8. Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Hydraulics Laboratory, 54124 Thessaloniki, Greece;1. BRGM/French Geological Survey, 3 avenue Claude Guillemin, 45060 Orléans Cedex, France;2. Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, Laboratoire de Géographie Physique, CNRS UMR 8591, France;3. LEGOS-CNES, Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées, 18 av. E. Belin, 31401 Toulouse Cedex 9, France |
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| Abstract: | Extreme sea levels at European coasts and their changes over the twentieth and twenty-first centuries are considered, including a method to analyze extreme sea levels and to assess their changes in a consistent way at different sites. The approach is based on using a combination of statistical tools and dynamical modelling as well as observational data and scenarios for potential future developments. The analysis is made for both time series of extreme sea levels and individually for the different components contributing to the extremes comprising (i) mean sea level changes, (ii) wind waves and storm surges and (iii), for relevant places, river flows. It is found that while regionally results vary in detail, some general inferences can be obtained. In particular it is found, that extreme sea levels show pronounced short-term and long-term variability partly associated with seasonal and nodal tidal cycles. Long-term trends are mostly associated with corresponding mean sea level changes while changes in wave and storm surge climate mostly contribute to inter-annual and decadal variability, but do not show substantial long-term trends. It is expected that this situation will continue for the upcoming decades and that long-term variability dominates over long-term trends at least for the coming decades. |
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