Evaluation of future storm surge risk in East Asia based on state-of-the-art climate change projection |
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| Institution: | 1. Disaster Prevention Research Institute, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011, Japan;2. Faculty of Engineering, Kumamoto University, 2-39-1 Kurokami, Kumamoto 860-8555, Japan;3. Graduate School of Engineering, Tottori University, 4-101, Koyama-cho Minami, Tottori 680-8552, Japan;4. National Oceanography Centre, Joseph Proudman Building, 6 Brownlow Street, Liverpool, Merseyside L3 5DA, UK;1. Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science (Ministry of Education), East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;2. School of Geographic Sciences, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China;3. Department of Geography & Anthropology, Louisiana State University, Baton Rouge, LA 70810, USA |
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| Abstract: | The present study evaluates future storm surge risk due to tropical cyclones (typhoons) in East Asia. A state-of-the-art atmospheric general circulation model (GCM) outputs are employed as the driving force for simulating storm surges associated with the projected changes in climate. The reproducibility of tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics from the GCM in the Northwest Pacific (NWP) is confirmed by comparing with the observed best track data, and future typhoon changes were presented. Storm surge simulation is carried out for East Asia, with the finest nested domain on the Japanese coast. The probability of maximum storm surge heights with specified return periods is determined using extreme value statistics. We show a strong regional dependency on future changes of severe storm surges. |
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