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Public policy and the changing landscape |
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| Authors: | |
| Institution: | (1) Marshall School of Business, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA;(2) Department of Geography, College of Letters, Arts and Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA;(3) School of Public health, University of California, Berkeley, CA, USA;; |
| Abstract: | The paper illustrates how spatially explicit forecasting of residential development can be undertaken and how it can be made sensitive to policy instruments available to local and state governments. Predicted values in residential use based on a hedonic analysis of residential property prices is found to have a significant effect on the hazard of development in a survival model used to explain the likelihood that a farm or forest will be converted to residential use. Policy instruments are imbedded in both the hedonic model of residential property values and a hazard model of parcel conversion, so as to test how effective changes in policies can be at changing the pattern of land-use change. Some of the statistical and modeling obstacles that impede progress on this spatially explicit modeling are also discussed. |
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