| 洪山泉流量动态系统分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 李静.洪山泉流量动态系统分析[J].水文地质工程地质,2004,31(2):79-82. |
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| 作者姓名： | 李静 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地质大学工程学院,武汉,430074 |
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| 摘 要： | 为查明洪山泉域的开采程度,在前人研究基础上,建立了现阶段泉流量-降雨量的线性模拟模型。通过对模型的系统辨识,对系统的"慢时变"现象作出了合理解释,并发现系统在1994年以后发生了"快时变",说明开采量从1995年开始迅猛增加。同时,由多年来泉流量序列的自相关分析,发现其宏观周期到2000年基本保持不变,说明虽然第二输入(即人为开采量)对该系统的作用已不可忽略,但尚未达到足以改变其宏观频率的程度。
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| 关 键 词： | 岩溶 泉流量 降雨量 单输入-单输出模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1000-3665(2004)02-0079-04 |
| 修稿时间： | 2003年1月15日 |
Dynamic system analysis for flux of the Hongshan Spring |
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| LI Jing.Dynamic system analysis for flux of the Hongshan Spring[J].Hydrogeology and Engineering Geology,2004,31(2):79-82. |
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| Authors: | LI Jing |
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| Abstract: | In order to find out the extend of the artificial exploited water quantity in Hongshan Spring, the linear spring's flux-rainfall simulation model for the present is set up on the basis of former study. Through the system identification to this model, the phenomenon that the system slowly changed with time is explained reasonably and the system rapidly changed with time is after 1994. Consequently it is considered that the artificial exploited water quantity began increasing rapidly from 1995. On the other hand, self-correlation analysis of spring's flux indicated that macroscopical cycle hasn't been changed. That is to say, although the influence of another input(the artificial exploited water quantity) hasn't been able to be ignored, it isn't enough to change macroscopical frequency of Hongshan Spring. Then it is not too late that effective management to water resources is from now on. |
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| Keywords: | karst spring's flux precipitation single input-single output modle |
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