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| 基于空间溢出效应的粮食主产区粮食增产与农业生态污染关系研究 | |
| 引用本文： | 邵喜武,周杨,吴佩蓉.基于空间溢出效应的粮食主产区粮食增产与农业生态污染关系研究[J].地理科学,2022,42(5):831-840. |
| 作者姓名： | 邵喜武 周杨 吴佩蓉 |
| 作者单位： | 1.吉林农业大学经济管理学院，吉林 长春 130118 2.济宁学院儒商学院，山东 济宁 273155 |
| 基金项目： | 国家社会科学基金项目资助(18BJY150) |
| 摘 要： | 采用空间计量模型，立足于粮食主产区，并引入非主产区作为对照，通过评估主产区与非主产区粮食增产对农业生态污染的影响，探讨粮食增产与农业生态变化关系。结果表明：① 粮食产量与农业生态污染均存在显著的空间相关性，且两个变量的空间相关性在时间上存在异质性，这就意味着空间同质性假说不再适用，传统的关于粮食增产影响生态污染的研究可能存在局限性；② 粮食增产并未加剧农业生态恶化。粮食主产区的设立本是为了保障粮食安全，其结果是不仅在一定程度上扭转了“非粮化”的趋势，还削弱了对农业生态环境的污染；③ 粮食增产并未加剧农业生态恶化的原因在于，粮食生产规模比重的增加所产生的规模效应和一系列行之有效的政策措施降低了粮食主产区的化肥施用强度，而农业机械化投入对农业生态污染的影响存在一定的门槛效应，大中型农机跨区服务可能有利于减少主产区农业生产对生产环境的污染程度。上述结论意味着粮食安全与生态保护之间不存在不可调和的矛盾；未来在农业适度规模经营过程中应激发农业机械化抑制农业生态恶化的潜能；考虑到空间效应的影响，应建立邻近区域农业污染治理联动机制。 |
| 关 键 词： | 粮食安全 生态污染 粮食主产区 空间效应 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-10-23 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022-01-25 |
Relation of Grain Increase and Agricultural Ecological Pollution Based on Spatial Spillover Effects in Major Grain Producing Areas |
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| Shao Xiwu,Zhou Yang,Wu Peirong.Relation of Grain Increase and Agricultural Ecological Pollution Based on Spatial Spillover Effects in Major Grain Producing Areas[J].Scientia Geographica Sinica,2022,42(5):831-840. | |
| Authors: | Shao Xiwu Zhou Yang Wu Peirong |
| Institution: | 1. College of Economics and Management, Jilin Agricultural University, Changchun 130118, Jilin, China 2. College of Confucian Business, Jining University, Jining 273155, Shandong, China |
| Abstract: | Based on the main grain-producing areas and the non-main grain-producing areas as the control, the spatial econometric model was adopted to evaluate the impact of grain production increase on the agricultural ecological environment in the main and non-main grain-producing areas, in an attempt to answer the question ‘whether the increase in grain production has exacerbated the deterioration of agricultural ecology’. The results showed that: 1) There was a significant spatial correlation between grain yield and agro-ecological pollution, and the spatial correlation of the two variables was heterogeneous in time, which meant that the spatial homogeneity hypothesis was no longer applicable, and the traditional research on the impact of grain yield increase on the ecological environment may have limitations; 2) The increase in grain production did not exacerbate the deterioration of agricultural ecology. The establishment of the main grain-producing areas is to guarantee the food security, which not only reverses the trend of ‘non-grain-producing’ to some extent, but also weakens the pollution to the agricultural ecological environment. 3) The reason why the increase in grain production did not exacerbate the deterioration of agricultural ecology is that the scale effect caused by the increase in the proportion of grain production scale and a series of effective policy measures reduced the intensity of chemical fertilizer application in the main grain-producing areas, and the impact of agricultural mechanization input on the agricultural ecological environment has a certain threshold effect. The above conclusions mean that there is no irreconcilable contradiction between food security and ecological protection, which makes the realization of ‘green development’ and ‘two mountains theory’ possible. In the future, the potential of agricultural mechanization to restrain the deterioration of agricultural ecology should be stimulated in the process of moderate scale agricultural management. Considering the influence of space effect, the linkage mechanism of agricultural environment governance in adjacent areas should be established. |
| Keywords: | food security ecological pollution grain main producing areas spatial effect |
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