| 基于MET检验的青海大范围降水个例参数化方案优选 |
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| 引用本文： | 颜玉倩,沈晓燕,肖宏斌,李金海.基于MET检验的青海大范围降水个例参数化方案优选[J].新疆气象,2019,13(6):57-64. |
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| 作者姓名： | 颜玉倩 沈晓燕 肖宏斌 李金海 |
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| 作者单位： | 青海省气象科学研究所,青海省防灾减灾重点实验室;青海省气象科学研究所,青海省防灾减灾重点实验室;青海省气象科学研究所, |
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| 基金项目： | 青海省重点科技成果转化项目（2018-SF-142）；青海三江 源生态保护和建设二期工程科研和推广项目（2018-S-3-27） |
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| 摘 要： | 利用WRF模式不同积云对流和微物理过程参数化方案对2015年8月1—3日青海省大范围降水过程进行了模拟,并利用MET(数值模式评估系统)对本次模拟结果进行了检验,结果表明:(1)此次过程,模式存在"早报"现象,尽管大部分方案预报降水量均偏多,但从降水过程中心位置和强度来看,BMJ(积云对流)/Thompson(微物理)组合方案模拟效果较为理想,Grell/WSM5和KF/Kessler次之;Grell/WSM5从降水极值点的空间分布特征和降水量级上模拟结果较为理想。(2)就空报率和漏报率的空间分布而言,空报率远高于漏报率,空报率高值区主要分布在玉树南部和海西东北部,模式对玉树地区的预报存在较大的误差。(3)用SEDS(对称极值依赖评分)评估极端降水,Grell/WSM5对极端降水的预报效果较好。(4)主观判断降水空间分布特征无法量化预报的质量,且单一的评分指数因侧重点不同无法综合评价模式的预报能力,故选用8种评分或指标进行定量评估,其结果表明,WSM5方案(微物理)的R(相关系数)较大且RMSE(均方根误差)较小,Grell/WSM5对此次降水预报效果最好,Grell/Kessler次之。综合来看,对此次降水个例Grell/WSM5组合方案为最优组合方案,参数化方案的优选有利于客观把握模式的预报能力与预报技巧,有利于提高区域数值模式在青海高原的适用性。
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| 关 键 词： | 数值模拟 青海省 MET 降水 检验 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018/5/21 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2018/7/12 0:00:00 |
Simulation effect evaluation of a wide range precipitation process in Qinghai province based on MET |
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| yanyuqian,and.Simulation effect evaluation of a wide range precipitation process in Qinghai province based on MET[J].Bimonthly of Xinjiang Meteorology,2019,13(6):57-64. |
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| Authors: | yanyuqian and |
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| Institution: | Qinghai Institute of Meteorological Science,,, |
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| Abstract: | A wide range precipitation process in Qinghai province from August 1 to August 3, 2015 were simulated by using different cumulus convection and microphysical process parameterization schemes in WRF, the result were evaluated by MET(Model Evaluate Tool). The results show: Most of the combination schemes forecast more precipitation, but as far as central position and total precipitation were concerned, the simulation effect of BMJ (cumulus convection) /Thompson (microphysical process) combination scheme was more ideal, Grell/ WSM5and KF/Kessler came second. According to the TS, 6 combination schemes were initially selected, which can better reflect the spatial distribution of actual observation, Grell/WSM5was ideal for simulating the extreme points position and amount of precipitation. (3)Judging from the spatial distribution, the rate of false alarm was higher than the rate of miss, the area of higher false alarm rate was in south of Yushu and northeast of Haixi. 8 indices or scores were selected to quantitatively assessment the simulation result, WSM5 scheme had a higher correlation coefficient and a lower RMSE(Root mean square error), Comprehensively considering 8 indices, Grell/Kessler were obviously higher than the other combination schemes, Grell/Kessler came second. Extreme precipitation was evaluated by SEDS(symmetric extreme dependency score),and the effect of Grell/WSM5 on extreme precipitation was better. Integrating multiple scoring indices was beneficial to objectively grasp the forecasting ability and forecasting skills of the model, and evaluate the applicability of the parameterization scheme of the study area. |
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| Keywords: | numerical simulation Qinghai province MET precipitation verification |
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