| 湖北省黄冈市降雨型滑坡气象预警判据 |
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| 引用本文： | 朱文慧,晏鄂川,邹浩,陈兵,肖炜波.湖北省黄冈市降雨型滑坡气象预警判据[J].地质科技通报,2022,41(6):45-53. |
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| 作者姓名： | 朱文慧 晏鄂川 邹浩 陈兵 肖炜波 |
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| 作者单位： | 1.湖北省地质局第三地质大队, 湖北 黄冈 438000 |
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| 基金项目： | 湖北省地质灾害综合防治体系建设重点项目Z195110010003 |
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| 摘 要： | 黄冈市是湖北省汛期地质灾害频发区之一, 地质灾害类型以滑坡为主, 其中75%为降雨型滑坡。通过统计分析黄冈市近10年滑坡与降雨的相关关系, 在考虑黄冈市地质灾害易发性分区基础上, 研究黄冈市降雨型滑坡的降雨阈值, 利用逻辑回归模型建立滑坡发生的概率预测模型, 再针对不同等级易发区提出对应的气象预警判据。最后以历史降雨及其滑坡事件检验预警判据的合理性与可信度。结果表明, 所建立的气象预警判据在时间尺度上由以往依托气象部门的中长期预警精细到了24 h的短临预警, 在空间尺度上确定了不同等级易发区的降雨型滑坡气象预警判据。预警准确率大幅提升, 显著提高了黄冈市降雨型滑坡气象预警精度, 可为临灾转移提供精细化的技术指导, 有效降低降雨型滑坡灾害带来的生命财产损失。
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| 关 键 词： | 黄冈市 降雨型滑坡 易发性分区 降雨阈值 逻辑回归模型 预警判据 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-03-02 |
Meteorological early warning criterion for rainfall-induced landslides in Huanggang City,Hubei Province |
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| Institution: | 1.Hubei Geological Bureau Third Geological Brigade, Huanggang Hubei 438000, China2.China University of Geosciences(Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China |
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| Abstract: | Huanggang is one of the areas with frequent geological disasters in the flood season in Hubei Province. The main types of geological disaster are landslides, accounting for 75% of rainfall-induced landslides. Therefore, this paper statistically analyzes the correlation between rainfall and landslides in Huanggang City over the last 10 years, studies the rainfall threshold of rainfall-induced landslides in Huanggang City based on considering the prone zoning of geological disasters, establishes the effective rainfall model of landslide occurrence by using the logistic regression model and then puts forward the corresponding meteorological early warning criterion for different prone zone areas. Finally, the rationality and reliability of the early warning criterion are tested by historical rainfall and landslide events. The results show that the meteorological early warning criterion established significantly improves the accuracy of meteorological early warning for rainfall-induced landslides in Huanggang City, provides refined technical guidance for disaster transfer, and effectively reduces the loss of life and property caused by rainfall-induced landslides. |
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