| 基于物理力学机制的滑坡数值预报模式: 综述、挑战与机遇 |
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| 引用本文： | 张抒,唐辉明,龚文平,邹宗兴.基于物理力学机制的滑坡数值预报模式: 综述、挑战与机遇[J].地质科技通报,2022,41(6):14-27. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张抒 唐辉明 龚文平 邹宗兴 |
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| 作者单位： | a.中国地质大学(武汉)湖北巴东地质灾害国家野外科学观测研究站, 武汉 430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目42090055湖北巴东地质灾害国家野外科学观测研究站开放基金课题BNORSG202213湖北省自然科学基金创新群体项目2022CFA002 |
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| 摘 要： | 滑坡预测预报是地质灾害防治领域长期以来备受关注的前沿科学问题。当前的研究框架专注于滑坡的变形行为特征与外动力因素, 面临着普适性不强与预报精准度不高的双重瓶颈问题。基于目前研究现状, 系统梳理了滑带流变力学行为与强度弱化效应的内涵, 阐述了滑坡渐进破坏演化机制, 总结了滑坡预测预报模型所包含的类型, 并介绍了其中的典型模型, 指出当前研究主要存在如下问题: ①滑坡演化物理力学模型尚需扩展; ②预测预报模型未能充分结合滑坡演化过程和物理力学模型; ③物理力学模型预测与多场监测数据间的兼容性问题未能实际解决。针对上述问题, 阐述了基于物理力学过程的滑坡预测预报所面临的挑战, 并立足多学科融合与交叉, 提出了开展滑坡预测预报研究的新思路。新思路要求从滑坡滑带介质特性与流变力学行为出发, 建立滑坡演化过程物理力学模型, 紧密结合实时多场监测数据, 建立滑坡数值预报模式, 实现滑坡物理力学过程实时动态更新, 以期实现理论与技术的突破。
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| 关 键 词： | 滑坡预测预报 物理力学机制 滑坡演化过程 数值预报模式 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022-06-17 |
Landslide numerical forecasting mode based on physical- mechanical mechanism: Overviews,challenges and opportunities |
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| Institution: | a.Badong National Observation and Research Station of Geohazards, China University of Geosciences(Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, Chinab.Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences(Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China |
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| Abstract: | Landslide forecasting and prediction is a frontier scientific issue that has received widespread attention in the field of geohazard prevention and control. The current research framework focuses on the deformation behavior characteristics and external dynamic factors of landslides and faces the dual bottleneck problems of low universality and low prediction accuracy.Based on the current research status, this paper systematically clarifies the connotation of the rheological-mechanical behavior and strength weakening effect of the sliding zone, explicates the evolution mechanism of the progressive failure of the landslide, summarizes the types of landslide prediction models, and introduces the typical models among them.Based on the comprehensively existing achievements, it is pointed out that the main problems of the current research are: ①the physical-mechanical models of landslide evolution are required to be extended; ②the prediction and forecasting models fail to fully integrate with landslide evolution and physical-mechanical model; ③the compatibility problem between physical-mechanical model prediction and multi-field monitoring data have not been practically solved. Given the above problems, the challenges of landslide prediction and forecasting models based on physical-mechanical processes are elaborated. Based on multidisciplinary integration and intersection, a new research strategy for landslide forecasting study is proposed. The new strategy requires the establishment of a physical-mechanical model of the landslide evolution process based on the structural properties and rheological-mechanical behavior of the slip zone. On this basis, a numerical forecasting mode for landslides is established by closely integrating real-time multi-field monitoring data that enables real-time dynamic updating of landslide physical-mechanical processes. This strategy is designed to achieve a theoretical and technical breakthrough. |
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