| 新铺下二台滑坡变形机制及中长期预报模型 |
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| 引用本文： | 武生辉,仝德富,苏爱军,郭兵,王健,谭磊.新铺下二台滑坡变形机制及中长期预报模型[J].地质科技通报,2022,41(6):35-44. |
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| 作者姓名： | 武生辉 仝德富 苏爱军 郭兵 王健 谭磊 |
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| 作者单位： | 1a.中国地质大学(武汉)湖北巴东地质灾害国家野外科学观测研究站, 武汉 430074 |
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| 基金项目： | 中央高校基本科研业务专项资金资助项目CUG1910491T07重庆地质灾害研究中心项目20C0023 |
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| 摘 要： | 以奉节新铺下二台滑坡为例, 基于GPS位移监测数据、裂缝数据、降雨量及库水位等多源数据, 总结分析了大型古滑坡的复活规律, 引入滑坡中长期预报模型, 实现了以季度或月份为时间单位的跨水文年滑坡位移预测, 并通过岩土体蠕变压缩模型, 验证了推移式滑坡后缘裂缝形成机理。结果表明: ①降雨是下二台滑坡变形的主导因素, 滑坡变形使得滑体产生裂缝并成为降雨入渗通道, 加剧了岩体破碎与软弱层软化, 降低了滑坡稳定性, 集中持续降雨可使滑坡失稳破坏; ②通过模型预测值与地表监测数据的比较, 将年降雨量作为滑坡中长期预报模型中的主控因素具有实际可操作性且有助于提高滑坡中长预报精度; ③推移式滑坡后缘裂缝由滑坡推移式位移和岩土体压缩形成, 引入蠕变压缩模型计算的裂缝宽度并和监测数据的比较说明, 蠕变压缩模型非常适合该类边坡, 同时应用岩土体蠕变压缩模型反推得到岩土体平均变形模量, 判断岩体破碎程度, 可以为滑坡稳定性分析及后续工程治理提供参考。
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| 关 键 词： | 新铺下二台滑坡 变形机制 降雨驱动型滑坡 滑坡预测 蠕变压缩模型 拉裂缝 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-12-13 |
Deformation mechanism and medium- and long-term landslide prediction model of Xinpu Xia'ertai landslide |
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| Institution: | 1a.Badong National Observation and Research Station of Geohazards, China University of Geosciences(Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China1b.Faculty of Engineering, China University of Geosciences(Wuhan), Wuhan 430074, China2.Chongqing Geological Disaster Pvevention Center, Chongqing 401147, China |
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| Abstract: | Due to the influence of reservoir water level, rainfall and geological conditions, the Three Gorges Reservoir area is a landslide hazard-prone area, and the landslide genesis mechanism and evolution process are also extremely complex.By taking the Xinpu Xia'ertai landslide as an example, this paper summarizes and analyses the resurgence law of large palaeo-landslides based on multiple sources of data, such as GPS displacement monitoring data, fracture data, rainfall and reservoir water level, and through a geotechnical creep compression model. The paper also verifies the mechanism of fracture formation on the trailing edge of the displaced landslide.The results show the following: ①Rainfall is the dominant factor of landslide deformation. Landslide deformation causes the landslide body to produce cracks and form rainfall infiltration channels, which intensifies rock fragmentation and weak layer mudification and reduces landslide stability; besides, concentrated and continuous rainfall can destabilize landslides. ②By comparing the predicted value of the model with the surface monitoring data, it is feasible to take annual rainfall as the controlling factor in the medium- and long-term landslide prediction model and help to improve the prediction accuracy of landslides. ③Pushing landslide trailing edge cracks consist of landslide pushing displacement and geotechnical body compression. In this paper, the compression creep model is introduced to calculate the crack width and compare it with the monitoring data. This shows that the compression creep model is suitable for this type of slope, and the average deformation modulus of the geotechnical body is obtained by applying the backpropagation of the geotechnical body creep compression model. Thus, we judge the degree of rock fragmentation, which provides a reference for landslide stability analysis and subsequent engineering management. |
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