| 地震过程动力学行为和可预报性问题研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 胡平,杨培才.地震过程动力学行为和可预报性问题研究[J].地球物理学报,1990,33(6):647-656. |
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| 作者姓名： | 胡平 杨培才 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 国家地震局地质研究所, 北京 100029;
2. 中国科学院大气物理研究所,国家地震局地质研究所, 北京 100029 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文提出了地震事件时序概念,找到了通过对实际地震观测资料的分析来有效地研究地震系统动力学行为和可预报性问题的方法.从实例分析观测资料的结果发现,被分析的这些地震系统混沌吸引子关联维数d2为3.2-7.5,二阶Renyi熵K2为0.019-0.052.这表明这些地震过程存在着已知变量数目范围的确定性规律,是可以预报的,但可预报时间有限.由K2可以估算在一定预报精度要求下,对未来地震的可预报时间长度（本文震例中最长为一个月左右）.这套分析方法对认识地震过程动力学行为及可预报性问题都有重要意义.
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| 关 键 词： | 地震事件时序 混沌 关联维 二阶Renyi熵 地震预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 1989-12-05 |
RESEARCH ON SEISMIC DYNAMICAL BEHAVIOR AND PREDICTABILITY |
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| HU PING.RESEARCH ON SEISMIC DYNAMICAL BEHAVIOR AND PREDICTABILITY[J].Chinese Journal of Geophysics,1990,33(6):647-656. |
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| Authors: | HU PING |
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| Abstract: | The concept of seismic event-order series advanced in this paper, on the basis of observation data analysis, achieves an effective means of realizing the dynamic behavior and the predictability of a seismic system. From analysing the observation data of RIS at Hunanzhen reservoir as an example, we found that the correlation dimension d2 and the order-2 Renyi entropy K2 of these seismic systems are vary from 3.2 to 7.5 and from 0.019 to 0.052 respectively. It indicate that there are deterministic laws in these seismicity processes. So the seismicity could be predicted, but limited in a time interval which defined by K2. The longest predictable time in the example is up to one month. This is of great significance for researching seismicity laws and predictability- |
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| Keywords: | Seismic event-order series Chaos Correlation dimension Order-2 Renyi entropy Earthquake prediction |
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