Estimating hydrological characteristics in the Amu Darya River basin under climate change conditions |
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| Authors: | N A Agal’tseva M V Bolgov T Yu Spektorman M D Trubetskova V E Chub |
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| Institution: | 1.Center for Hydrometeorology Service at the Cabinet of Uzbekistan,Tashkent,Uzbekistan;2.Water Problems Institute,Russian Academy of Sciences,Moscow,Russia |
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| Abstract: | Under consideration are results of solving the problem of the river water content estimation under conditions of uncertainties
of climate change forecasts and the catchment state with a reference to the Amu Darya River basin. When constructing regional
climate models, one selected a multimodel approach using the results of several global models and a statistical downscaling
method that made the climate scenarios more detailed. The estimates demonstrated that in the medium- and long-term perspective,
the Amu Darya River runoff is expected to decrease. As a result of the Bayesian ideology application, using the calculations
got with a total probability formula, a prognostic probability curve of an annual river runoff supply of the basin rivers
was derived based on different weights given to the estimates of a mean value for different climate scenarios. Prognostic
characteristics of the annual runoff for the Amu Darya basin rivers are estimated in a form acceptable for hydrologic and
hydroeconomic application. |
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