| 转移概率预报方法在霜冻预报中的应用 |
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| 引用本文： | 申建华,李月莲,陈清兰,陈勇,张智辉.转移概率预报方法在霜冻预报中的应用[J].山西气象,2006(4):15-17. |
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| 作者姓名： | 申建华 李月莲 陈清兰 陈勇 张智辉 |
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| 作者单位： | 山西省吕梁市气象局 山西吕梁033000 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文在简介转移概率预报方法及最大概率预报原理的基础上,分析了吕梁市1957年～2000年霜冻初、终日期各随机时间序列状态之间的转换规律,结合各序列的初始分布,建立预报模型,并对1995年～2004年的初、终霜日期进行了预报效果检验。结果表明,该方法预报效果好,使用性强,具有良好的应用前景。
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| 关 键 词： | 转移概率 随机时间序列 预报模型 |
| 文章编号： | 1004-5732（2006）04-0015-03 |
| 收稿时间： | 2006-06-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2006-06-06 |
The Application of the Predication Method of Conversion Probability in Frost Forecast |
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| Shen Jianhua,Li Yuelian,Chen Qinglan,Chen Yong,Zhang Zhihui.The Application of the Predication Method of Conversion Probability in Frost Forecast[J].Shanxi Meteorological Quarterly,2006(4):15-17. |
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| Authors: | Shen Jianhua Li Yuelian Chen Qinglan Chen Yong Zhang Zhihui |
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| Institution: | Luliang Meteorology Bureau of Shanxi Province, Luliang Shanxi, 033000 |
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| Abstract: | Based on the brief introduction about forecast method of conversion probability and max probability, the time series of the beginning and ending of frost processes in Luliang 1957- 2000 were analyzed and its change rule was studied. Consulting to the initialization distribution,the forecast model was builded and validated.The result indicated that this method is effective and will have well applied foreground. |
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| Keywords: | Conversion Probability Random Time Series Forecast Model |
| 本文献已被 CNKI 维普 等数据库收录！ |
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