Risk Assessment based on the Mathematical Model of Diffuse Exogenous Geological Processes |
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| Authors: | Alexey Viktorov |
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| Institution: | (1) Institute of Environmental Geosciences of the Russian Academy of Science, Moscow, Russia |
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| Abstract: | The estimation of the risk caused by hazardous geological processes is a common problem. The aim of this paper is to present
a method for solving problems involving a wide spectrum of diffuse exogenous geological processes, based on the mathematical
morphology of landscapes. Diffuse processes develop as random rounded sites within certain areas and include karstification,
subsidence, thermo-karstification and aeolian processes. Model assumptions take into consideration spatial and temporal randomness
of occurrence, independent growth under occasional conditions, and cessation of growth given a ‘stop factor’, with transformation
into degenerate sites. Based on these model assumptions, the following probabilities of impact by diffuse exogenous geological
processes are solved for analytically. Firstly, the probability of impact on engineering constructions of round shape given
the size of the diffuse processes and the known average impact risk; secondly, the probability of impact on small engineering
constructions (points); and lastly, the probability of impact on linear engineering constructions of specified length. The
computed impact probabilities are verified in various areas within Western Siberia. |
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| Keywords: | Mathematical modeling Risk assessment Diffuse exogenous processes Landscape pattern |
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