Estimation of earthquake hazard parameters for incomplete and uncertain data files |
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| Authors: | Andrzej Kijko Markvard A Sellevoll |
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| Institution: | 1. Institute of Seismology, University of Helsinki, Et. Hesperiankatu 4, 10-100, Helsinki, Finland
2. Seismological Observatory, University of Bergen, Allégt. 41, 5007, Bergen, Norway
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| Abstract: | The maximum likelihood estimation of earthquake hazard parameters (maximum regional magnitudem max, activity rate λ, and theb parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter distribution) is extended to the cases of incomplete and uncertain data. The method accepts mixed data containing only large (extreme) events and a variable quality of complete data with different threshold magnitude values. Uncertainty of earthquake magnitude is specified by two values, the lower and upper magnitude limits. It is assumed that such an interval contains the real unknown magnitude. The proposed approach allows the combination of different quality catalog parts, e.g. those where the assignment of magnitude is questionable and those with magnitudes precisely determined. As an illustration of the method, the seismic hazard analysis for western Norway and adjacent sea area (4–8°E, 58–64°N) is presented on the basis of the strongest earthquakes felt during the period 1831–1889 and three complete catalog parts, covering the period 1890–1987. |
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