| 海南岛气候舒适度与年内客流量变化的相关性分析 |
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| 引用本文： | 张明洁,刘少军,张京红,车秀芬.海南岛气候舒适度与年内客流量变化的相关性分析[J].广西气象,2013(4):42-47. |
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| 作者姓名： | 张明洁 刘少军 张京红 车秀芬 |
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| 作者单位： | [1]海南省气候中心,海南海口570203 [2]南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室,海南海口570203 |
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| 基金项目： | 中国气象局气候变化专项（CCSF201310）,海南省自然基金项目（411099）联合资助. |
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| 摘 要： | 利用海南岛1981-2010年的气温、相对湿度、风速、日照时数等气象资料对海南岛旅游气候舒适度进行评价,划分出年内各月旅游气候适宜性等级;结合2006-2010年的旅游客流量统计数据,计算了客流量月指数,在此基础上,用虚拟因子表示非气候气候因素的影响,采用OLS方法分别建立了客流量月指数与气候舒适度的回归方程,相关分析结果表明：（1）国内旅游客流量全年受到气候舒适度的影响,国内客流量月指数与气候舒适度之间的线性关系显著,弹性系数为1.5％;海外旅游客流量除受到气候舒适度的影响外,节假日赛事活动等非气候因素对其也产生一定的影响,海外客流量月指数气候弹性系数为1.1％.
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| 关 键 词： | 气候舒适度 客流量 相关性分析 海南岛 |
The Correlation Analysis Between Climate Comfort Degree and Monthly Variation of Tourists in Hainan Island |
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| ZHANG Mingjie,LIU Shaojun,ZHANG Jinghong,CHE Xiufen.The Correlation Analysis Between Climate Comfort Degree and Monthly Variation of Tourists in Hainan Island[J].Journal of Guangxi Meteorology,2013(4):42-47. |
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| Authors: | ZHANG Mingjie LIU Shaojun ZHANG Jinghong CHE Xiufen |
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| Institution: | 1.Climate Center of Hainan Province, Haikou 570203,China; 2.South China Sea Meteorology and Disaster Mitigation Research Key Laboratory, Haikou 570203,China) |
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| Abstract: | Based on the climate data for air temperature, relative humidity , wind velocity and sunshine duration in the past 30 years （from 1981 to 2010） , climate comfort degree in Hainan Island was assessed by dividing climate suitability grades for tourism, monthly tourists index was calculated with the statistical data of tourists in the past 5 years （from 2006 to 2010） , on the basis of this, the virtual factor was used for indicating the influence of non-climate factors, the regression equation of monthly tourists index and climate comfort degree was determined by OLS. The results of correlation analysis showed that： for domestic tourism, monthly variation of tourists is primarily affected by climate comfort degree during the year, the linear relationship between monthly tourists index of domestic tourism and climate comfort degree is significant for its elasticity coefficient is 1.5%; for overseas tourism, monthly variation of tourists is mainly affected by the climate comfort degree, in addition, some non-climate factors such as holidays, contests, also made an effect on them, the elasticity coefficient is 1.1%. The study may provide scientific basis for exploiting tourism resources. |
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| Keywords: | climate comfort degree variation of tourists correlation analysis Hainan Island |
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