Sensitivity of seismic hazard evaluations to uncertainties determined from seismic source characterization |
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| Authors: | Behrooz Tavakoli |
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| Institution: | (1) Dept. of Earth Sciences, Uppsala University, Seismology Villavägen 16, S-752 36 Uppsala, Sweden |
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| Abstract: | The sensitivity and overall uncertainty in peak ground acceleration (PGA)estimates have been calculated for the city of Tabriz, northwestern Iran byusing a specific randomized blocks design. Eight seismic hazard models andparameters with randomly selected uncertainties at two levels have beenconsidered and then a linear model between predicted PGA at a givenprobability level and the uncertainties has been performed. The inputmodels and parameters are those related to the attenuation, magnituderupture-length and recurrence relationships with their uncertainties.Application of this procedure to the studied area indicates that effects ofthe simultaneous variation of all eight input models and parameters on thesensitivity of the seismic hazard can be investigated with a decreasingnumber of computations for all possible combinations at a fixed annualprobability. The results show that the choice of a mathematical model ofthe source mechanism, attenuation relationships and the definition ofseismic parameters are most critical in estimating the sensitivity of seismichazard evaluation, in particular at low levels of probability of exceedance.The overall uncertainty in the expected PGA for an annual probability of0.0021 (10% exceedence in 50 yr) is expressed by a coefficient ofvariation (CV) of about 34% at 68% confidence level for a distance ofabout 5km from the field of the major faults. The CV will decrease withincreasing site-source distance and remains constant, CV = 15%, fordistances larger than 15 km. Finally, treating alternative models on theoverall uncertainty are investigated by additional outliers in input decision. |
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| Keywords: | North Tabriz Fault northwestern Iran Poisson model randomized blocks design renewal model sensitivity seismic hazard uncertainty |
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