Stratospheric zonal wind and temperature in relation to summer monsoon rainfall over India |
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| Authors: | S D Bansod K D Prasad S V Singh |
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| Institution: | (1) Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India, IN;(2) National Center for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, New Delhi, India, IN |
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| Abstract: | Summary The interannual variability of the Indian summer monsoon (June–September) rainfall is examined in relation to the stratospheric
zonal wind and temperature fluctuations at three stations, widely spaced apart. The data analyzed are for Balboa, Ascension
and Singapore, equatorial stations using recent period (1964–1994) data, at each of the 10, 30 and 50 hPa levels. The 10 hPa
zonal wind for Balboa and Ascension during January and the 30 hPa zonal wind for Balboa during April are found to be positively
correlated with the subsequent Indian summer monsoon rainfall, whereas the temperature at 10 hPa for Ascension during May
is negatively correlated with Indian summer monsoon rainfall. The relationship with stratospheric temperatures appears to
be the best, and is found to be stable over the period of analysis.
Stratospheric temperature is also significantly correlated with the summer monsoon rainfall over a large and coherent region,
in the north-west of India. Thus, the 10 hPa temperature for Ascension in May appears to be useful for forecasting summer
monsoon rainfall for not only the whole of India, but also for a smaller region lying to the north-west of India.
Received July 30, 1999 Revised March 17, 2000 |
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