Assessing the Influence of the ENSO on Tropical Cyclone Prevailing Tracks in the Western North Pacific |
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| Authors: | ZHAO Haikun WU Liguang and ZHOU Weican |
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| Institution: | Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education,Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044,Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster of Ministry of Education, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing 210044 |
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| Abstract: | Using a statistical model for simulating tropical cyclone (TC) formation and
a trajectory model for simulating TC tracks, the influence of the El
Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the peak-season (July--September) TC
prevailing tracks in the western North Pacific basin is assessed based on 14
selected El Nino and 14 selected La Nina years during the period 1950--2007.
It is found that the combination of statistical formation model and a
trajectory model can simulate well the primary features of TC prevailing
tracks on the interannual timescale. In the El Nino years, the significant enhancement of TC activity primarily occurs south of 20N, especially east
of 130E. TCs that take the northwestward prevailing track and affect East
Asia, including Taiwan Island, the Chinese mainland, Korea, and Japan, tend to move more westward in the El Nino years, while taking a more northward track
in the La Nina years. Numerical simulations confirm that the ENSO-related changes in large-scale steering flows and TC formation locations can have a considerable influence on TC prevailing tracks. |
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| Keywords: | ENSO tropical cyclone track trajectory model western North Pacific |
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