A method for estimating casualties due to the tsunami inundation flow |
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| Authors: | Shunichi Koshimura Toshitaka Katada Harold O Mofjeld Yoshiaki Kawata |
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| Institution: | (1) Disaster Control Research Center, School of Engineering, Tohoku Unversity, 6-6-1104, Aramaki, Aoba, 980-8579 Sendai, Japan;(2) Department of Civil Engineering, Gunma University, Gunma, Japan;(3) NOAA/Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, 98115 Seattle, Washington, USA;(4) Research Center for Disaster Reduction Systems, DPRI, Kyoto University, Osaka, Japan |
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| Abstract: | This study develops a method for estimating the number of casualties that may occur while people evacuate from an inundation
zone when a tsunami has inundated an area. The method is based on a simple model of hydrodynamic forces as they affect the
human body. The method uses a Tsunami casualty index (TCI) computed at each grid point of a numerical tsunami model to determine
locations and times within the tsunami inundation zone where evacuation during the tsunami inundation is not possible and
therefore where casualties are likely to occur. The locations and times can be combined with information about population
density to compute the potential number of casualties. This information is useful in developing tsunami evacuation routes
that avoid such locations. To illustrate the method, it is applied to the Seattle waterfront in Washington State, USA, that
is under the threat of possible tsunami disasters due to Seattle Fault earthquakes. Preliminary results suggest that the tsunami
casualties may occur within the Seattle waterfront for 15 min, during the time interval from 3 to 18 min after a large Seattle
Fault tsunami is generated when the background tide level is mean high water. |
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| Keywords: | Tsunami Casualty Inundation flow Evacuation |
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