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Discrete calculations of interstellar migration and settlement

Authors:	Eric M Jones

Institution:	Los Alamos Scientific Laboratory, P.O. Box 1663, Los Alamos, New Mexico 87545, USA

Abstract:	Monte Carlo calculations of the expansion of space-faring civilizations are presented for a wide range of values of the population growth coefficient (α) and emigration coefficient (γ). Even for the very low values proposed by Newman and Sagan (α = 10^?4per year; γ = 10^?8per year) the migration wavefront expands at 1.4 × 10^?5 pc per year. Even with this low expansion velocity, such a civilization would fill the Galaxy in about 10⁹ years. Filling times of the order of 60 million years seem probable. The wavefront velocity is approximated by $υ = Δr (Δx υ_{s}) + (1 α) ln (2α γ)]$ , where $Δr$ is the average radial distance traveled, $δx$ the average distance traveled, and υ_s the ship speed. This approximation was derived by Newman.

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