Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways |
| |
| Institution: | 1. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz-1, A-2361, Laxenburg, Austria;2. Norwegian Institute of Public Health, PO Box 4404, Nydalen, 0403, Oslo, Norway;3. Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 5825 University Research Court, Suite 3500, College Park, MD 20740, USA;4. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, USA;5. Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability, Via Enrico Fermi 2749, I − 21027, Ispra (VA), Italy;6. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Ant. van Leeuwenhoeklaan 9, 3721 MA, Bilthoven, The Netherlands;7. Department of Earth Sciences, Faculty of Geosciences, Utrecht University, PO Box 80021, 3508 TA, Utrecht, The Netherlands;8. Graz University of Technology, Inffeldgasse, A-8010 Graz, Austria;9. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK),PO Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam, Germany;10. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Agriculture Flagship, St Lucia, QLD, 4067, Australia;11. Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3584 CS Utrecht, The Netherlands;12. Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM), Corso Magenta 63, 20123 Milan, Italy;13. Centro Euro-Mediterraneo per i Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC), via Augusto Imperatore, 16-I-73100 Lecce, Italy;14. National Institute for Environmental Studies, Center for Social & Environmental Systems research, 16-2 Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, 305-8506, Japan;15. Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Torgauer Straße 12-15 10829 Berlin, Germany;p. Politecnico di Milano, Piazza Leonardo da Vinci, 32, 20133 Milan, Italy |
| |
| Abstract: | Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. The resulting pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. In the SSP3 and SSP4 scenarios, where economic, institutional and technological limitations slow air quality improvements, global pollutant emissions over the 21st century can be comparable to current levels. Pollutant emissions in the SSP1 scenarios fall to low levels due to the assumption of technological advances and successful global action to control emissions. |
| |
| Keywords: | Scenarios Air pollution Integrated assessment models |
| 本文献已被 ScienceDirect 等数据库收录！ |
|
