Child health outcomes in sub-Saharan Africa: A comparison of changes in climate and socio-economic factors |
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| Institution: | 1. Climate Hazards Group, Department of Geography, University of California Santa Barbara, United States;2. Department of Geography, University of Minnesota, United States;3. US Geological Survey (U.S.G.S.), United States;1. Department of Social, Environmental and Economic Psychology, University of Koblenz-Landau, Fortstr. 7, H-Gebäude, 76829 Landau, Germany;2. ICREA, Barcelona, Spain;3. Institute of Environmental Science and Technology, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Edifici Z, UAB Campus, 08193 Bellaterra, Spain;1. Westat, 1600 Research Blvd, Rockville, MD, USA;2. NASA, Biospheric Sciences Branch, Code 614.4, Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD 20771, USA;1. Inter-American Development Bank 1300 New York AVE NW, SE-948, 20577 Washington DC, USA;2. Centro de Estudios Regionales Cafeteros y Empresariales Km 11 Via al Magdalena, Manizales, Caldas, Colombia;1. Department of Agricultural Economics, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907, United States;2. School of Economics and Business, Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU), Ås, Norway;3. Poverty, Health, and Nutrition Division International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington DC 20006, United States;4. Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742, United States |
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| Abstract: | We compare changes in low birth weight and child malnutrition in 13 African countries under projected climate change versus socio-economic development scenarios. Climate scenarios are created by linking surface temperature gradients with declines in seasonal rainfall sea along with warming values of 1 °C and 2 °C. Socio-economic scenarios are developed by assigning regionally specific changes in access to household electricity and mother's education. Using these scenarios, in combination with established models of children's health, we investigate and compare the changes in predicted health outcomes. We find that the negative effects of warming and drying on child stunting could be mitigated by positive development trends associated with increasing mothers’ educational status and household access to electricity. We find less potential for these trends to mitigate how warming and drying trends impact birth weights. In short, under warming and drying, the risk of more malnourished children is greater than the risk of more children with low birth weights, but increases in child malnutrition could be averted in regions that increase access to educational resources and basic infrastructure. |
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| Keywords: | Climate change Shared socioeconomic pathways Infant health Food security |
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