| CMA-GFS与ECMWF模式预报产品不一致性特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭达烽,刘 春,郭 泓,罗淑尹.CMA-GFS与ECMWF模式预报产品不一致性特征[J].气象与减灾研究,2022,45(4):264-273. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭达烽 刘 春 郭 泓 罗淑尹 |
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| 作者单位： | 江西省气象台， 江西 南昌 330096;江西省气象服务中心， 江西 南昌 330096;南昌市气象局， 江西 南昌 330038 |
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| 基金项目： | 江西省气象局科研项目（编号：JX2022Y02）. |
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| 摘 要： | 为讨论CMA-GFS模式与ECMWF模式对不同要素预报性能的差异，选用2019—2021年500 hPa位势高度、地面气压、地面2 m气温、12 h降水量的4种要素为对象，采用跳跃指数为评价指标，对比分析了不同区域CMA-GFS、ECMWF模式预报的不一致性特征。结果表明：1） 在形势产品（500 hPa位势高度、地面气压）预报方面，两种模式多日平均预报跳跃指数和频率（即预报不一致性）随预报时效的延长而逐渐增大，总体而言CMA-GFS模式预报不一致性比ECMWF模式略显著。2） 在要素产品（地面2 m气温、12 h降水量）预报方面，ECMWF模式预报的跳跃指数、频率都随预报时效的延长而逐渐增大；CMA GFS模式预报的跳跃指数、频率随预报时效的延长出现“两头大、中间小”的变化；CMA-GFS模式预报不一致性比ECMWF模式显著，尤其短预报时效差异更明显。3） 除CMA-GFS模式12 h降水预报外，同一模式相同要素预报区域范围越大预报跳跃指数越小，两者呈反比关系。4） 两种模式的500 hPa位势高度、地面气压、地面2 m气温预报的跳跃指数分布均呈自南向北逐渐增大趋势，而12 h降水量预报的跳跃指数分布呈自北向南逐渐增大趋势，另外12 h降水量预报的跳跃指数分布与特殊地理位置有关。
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| 关 键 词： | 数值模式 预报产品 不一致性 跳跃指数 |
| 收稿时间： | 2022/9/8 0:00:00 |
| 修稿时间： | 2022/11/23 0:00:00 |
Comparative Analysis of the Inconsistencies of Product Between CMA-GFS and ECMWF Models |
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| Guo Dafeng,Liu Chun,Guo Hong,Luo Shuyin.Comparative Analysis of the Inconsistencies of Product Between CMA-GFS and ECMWF Models[J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,2022,45(4):264-273. |
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| Authors: | Guo Dafeng Liu Chun Guo Hong Luo Shuyin |
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| Institution: | Jiangxi Meteorological Observatory, Nanchang 330096, China;Jiangxi Meteorological Service Center, Nanchang 330096, China; Nanchang Meteorological Bureau of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang 330038, China |
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| Abstract: | In order to discuss the differences between the CMA-GFS model and the ECMWF model in the forecast performance of different meteorological elements, four models of 500 hPa altitude, surface pressure, surface 2 m temperature and 12 h precipitation from 2019 to 2021 were selected as the analysis objects, and then the variation characteristics of jump index and the inconsistency of forecast of CMA-GFS and ECMWF models in different regions were compared and analyzed using the jump index quantitative calculation method. The results showed that: 1) the multi-day average forecast jump index, frequency and forecast inconsistency of the two models increased gradually with the extension of forecasting time. In general, the forecast inconsistency of CMA-GFS was slightly larger than that of ECMWF model situation products. 2) In the forecast of factor products (temperature, precipitation), the jump index and frequency of ECMWF model increased with the extension of forecasting time. The prediction jump index and frequency of CMA-GFS model changed with the extension of the prediction time. The prediction inconsistency of CMA GFS was greater than that of ECMWF, especially in the short time forecast, the difference was more obvious. 3) Except for CMA-GFS precipitation, the larger the region of the same forecast object in the same model, the smaller the forecast jump index value, and the two were inversely proportional. 4) The distributions of the forecast jump index of altitude, barometric pressure and temperature increased gradually from south to north, but the forecast jump index of precipitation increased gradually from north to south, which was related to the special geographical location. |
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| Keywords: | numerical models forecast products inconsistencies jump indices |
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