| System Analysis of Disaster Prevention Design Criteria for Coastal and Estuarine Cities |
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| 作者单位： | LIU Defu DONG Sheng WANG Shuqing and WANG Chao
1 Professor，Engineering College，Ocean University of Qingdao，Qingdao 266003，P. R. China
2 Associate Professor，Engineering College，Ocean University of Qingdao，Qingdao 266003，P. R. China
3 Postgraduate，Engineering College，Ocean University of Qingdao，Qingdao 266003，P. R. China
4 Professor，Tianjin University，Tianjin，300072，P. R. China |
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| 摘 要： | —In China,estuarine and coastal cities are mostly regional economic development centers.Thedisasters by combined effect of upper reach flood,storm surge and typhoon waves are primary obstaclesto the economic development of such cities.Thus the risk analysis and system analysis of flood-stormsurge-wave disaster,economic loss and flood-storm surge control measures play a very important role inthe sustainable development of coastal cities.There are three types of coastal cities for consideration.Thefirst type of city is like Tianjin.The most significant damage is from the upper reach flood.The effect ofstorm surge is negligible,because in the estuary of the Haihe River,tidal locks are built.The Grey MarkovModel(GMM)is used to forecast the flood peak level.GMM combines the Grey system and the Markovtheory into a high-precision model.The predicted flood peak levels are close to the measured data.A syn-thetic model is established for economic assessment,risk analysis and flood-control benefit estimation.Asa n
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System Analysis of Disaster Prevention Design Criteria for Coastal and Estuarine Cities |
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| Authors: | LIU Defu |
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| Abstract: | －In China, estuarine and coastal cities are mostly regional economic development centers. The disasters by combined effect of upper reach flood, storm surge and typhoon waves are primary obstacles to the economic development of such cities. Thus the risk analysis and system analysis of flood-storm surge-wave disaster, economic loss and flood-storm surge control measures play a very important role in the sustainable development of coastal cities. There are three types of coastal cities for consideration. The first type of city is like Tianjin. The most significant damage is from the upper reach flood. The effect of storm surge is negligible, because in the estuary of the Haihe River, tidal locks are built. The Grey Markov Model (GMM) is used to forecast the flood peak level GMM combines the Grey system and the Markov theory into a high-precision model The predicted flood peak levels are close to the measured data. A synthetic model is established for economic assessment, risk analysis and flood-control benefit estimation. As a new contribution, a stochastic simulation technique is used to compute risk probability. At the same time, consideration is given to the effect of correlation between variables on risk probability. The second type of city is like Shanghai, where sometimes the combined effect of river flood peak and set storm surge is the most severe disaster. The water level of a 1000 yr. return period of the Huangpu river is used as the design criterion. The simulated combined water level of flood peak, storm surge and maximum astronomical tidal level of a 400 yr. return period is close to the conventional design water level of a return period of 1000 years. The third type of city is like Qingdao, where the combined effect of the maximum astronomical tide, storm surge and waves bring about the most significant damage. With the stochastic simulation technique, different combinations of storm surge and waves at the 1% and 2% joint probability level are simulated for disaster prevention. |
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| Keywords: | grey theory Markov chain stochastic simulation joint probability disaster prevention criteria |
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