| 利用门限自回归建模和样条函数拟合方法研究甘肃东南部地区地震活动特征 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭大庆,杨立明.利用门限自回归建模和样条函数拟合方法研究甘肃东南部地区地震活动特征[J].西北地震学报,1992,14(2):20-29. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭大庆 杨立明 |
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| 作者单位： | 国家地震局兰州地震研究所,国家地震局兰州地震研究所 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文应用数学门限自回归模型和样条函数,研究了甘肃东南部的地震活动特征。结论如下:(1)甘肃东南部的地震活动具有"准周期"现象,本世纪以来已经历了三个"准周期",目前,处于第三活动期。(2)1900年以来的地震活动处于较低的水平,大多数地震的震级为5-6级。根据本文的研究,下一次地震的震级约为5级左右,目前发震的概率为0.74.(3)震级大于4.7级地震的空间分布图象与数字模拟实验结果一致。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震 活动性 甘肃 自回归模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 1991/12/24 0:00:00 |
A STUDY ON THE SEISMIC ACTIVITY FEATURE IN THE SOUTHEAST GANSU PROVINCE USING THE MATHEMATIC AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL AND PISEWISE POLYNOMIAL |
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| Cuo Daqing and Yang Liming.A STUDY ON THE SEISMIC ACTIVITY FEATURE IN THE SOUTHEAST GANSU PROVINCE USING THE MATHEMATIC AUTOREGRESSIVE MODEL AND PISEWISE POLYNOMIAL[J].Northwestern Seismological Journal,1992,14(2):20-29. |
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| Authors: | Cuo Daqing and Yang Liming |
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| Institution: | Earthquake Research Institute of Lanzhou, SSB, China and Earthquake Research Institute of Lanzhou, SSB, China |
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| Abstract: | In this paper, the authors have studied the seismic features in the southeast Gansu Province using the mathematic threshold autoregressive model and pisewise polynomial. The results are as follow:1) The seismicity is of a "periodic phenomenon". There have been 3 cycles since this century. At present, the seismicity is in the third active "period".2) Since. 1900. the seismicity has been in lower level, most of earthquakes are ones with magnitude of 5-6. The next earthquake will be one with magnitude of about 5 according to the threshold autoregressive model, and its occurring probability at present is 0.74 based on the pise-wise polynomial.3) The pattern of space distribution of earthquakes (M>4.7) is in accordance with analog-to-digital experiment. |
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