| 与地震预测有关的关键物理问题 |
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| 引用本文： | 蒋长胜.与地震预测有关的关键物理问题[J].国际地震动态,2007(9):2-10. |
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| 作者姓名： | 蒋长胜 |
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| 作者单位： | 中国地震局地球物理研究所,北京,100081 |
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| 基金项目： | 致谢本文得到中国地震局“十二五”发展规划研究固体地球物理学与地球内部探测专题和中国地震局地球物理研究所基本科研业务专项DQJB06803资助.对相关的关键物理问题的提法实际上最早见诸于吴忠良教授2007年6月赴新疆高级访问学者学术报告中,本文撰写过程中也得到了吴忠良教授的大力指导,在此作者谨表谢意. |
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| 摘 要： | 本文介绍与当前地震预测/预报研究密切相关的若干关键物理问题,它们包括断层带结构、应力变化问题、统一考虑"静地震"、"慢地震"、蠕变与天然地震的宏观地震行为、地震的"成核"以及地震作为复杂系统的性质等问题的研究进展以及相关研究面临的机遇与挑战。未来通过对相关物理问题开展有针对性的观测、实验室实验和理论研究将极大地促进中国地震科学基础研究和地震预报的进一步发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 地震预测 断层带 应力变化 成核 静地震 数值预报 |
| 修稿时间： | 2007-04-28 |
The Key Physical Problems in Earthquake Prediction Research |
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| Jiang Changsheng.The Key Physical Problems in Earthquake Prediction Research[J].Recent Developments in World Seismology,2007(9):2-10. |
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| Authors: | Jiang Changsheng |
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| Institution: | Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing 100081, China |
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| Abstract: | The current progresses,challenge opportunity of several key physical problems i n earthquake prediction/forecast including the structure of fault zones,the str ess changes,the macroscopic behavior of silent and slow earthquakes,fault cree p and earthquakes,earthquake nucleation,earthquake characters as a complex sys tem are introduced in the paper.Combining the observational,theoretical and la boratory study aimed at those physical problems the Basic research in earthquak e science as well as earthquake prediction/forecast in China will be promoted gr eatly in the future. |
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| Keywords: | earthquake prediction/forecast fault zone stress change ear thquake nucleation silent earthquake numerical forecast |
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