| Abstract: | The hazard rate, the number of fracture occurrences per unit time, which has been obtained from laboratory experiments of rock fracture, is obtained for the earth's crust by analysing the statistical distribution of geodetically-observed ultimate strain. The associated hazard function has two coefficients, A and B, to be determined. Comparison of the coefficients obtained by the results of rock-fracture experiments with the geodetically determined ones discloses that B is independent of the size-effect. It is therefore concluded that, if A is estimated from the statistics of the geodetically observed ultimate strain and B is obtained from fracture experiments of rock forming a local part of the crust, the probability of a local large-scale earthquake occurrence can be estimated. |
