| 沈阳地区浅层地温变化特征及播种期地温预报研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 宋晓巍,李琳琳,李石,刘青,高淑新,姜珊,张菁,张靖萱.沈阳地区浅层地温变化特征及播种期地温预报研究[J].气象与环境学报,2019,35(4):93-99. |
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| 作者姓名： | 宋晓巍 李琳琳 李石 刘青 高淑新 姜珊 张菁 张靖萱 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 沈阳市气象局, 辽宁 沈阳 110168;2. 辽宁省气象科学研究所, 辽宁 沈阳 110166;3. 新民市气象局, 辽宁 新民 110300 |
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| 基金项目： | 沈阳市科学技术局沈阳市科技创新专项资金—农业科技攻关项目（F14-113-3-00）资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 为了掌握沈阳地区地温变化规律，并提供更好的大田地温预报服务，降低播种风险，提高粮食生产安全，利用沈阳地区7个气象站点1981-2015年地温和气温数据，运用数理统计方法，分析近35 a地温和气温的变化规律，建立了春播期（4月和5月）地温预报模型。结果表明：1981-2010年，年代际温度呈上升趋势，气温的变化导致地温的变化也更加明显，气温和各层地温的气候倾向率为0.426-0.549℃/10 a，4-10月0-5 cm、5-10 cm、10-20 cm每一层的地温差为1.5℃、0.5℃和0.5℃；0-20 cm地温以及气温在1996年前后发生了突变；春播期西部地区0 cm、5 cm、10 cm的地温和气温差值4-5月由较低转为较高；地温预报模型t检验的P值在P=0.01水平差异均不显著，相对误差控制在±10%以内，可以用于沈阳春播期（4月和5月）地温预测。
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| 关 键 词： | 沈阳地区 地温 播种期 预报 |
| 收稿时间： | 2017-12-18 |
Change characteristics of shallow ground temperature and its prediction during the sowing period in Shenyang |
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| SONG Xiao-wei,LI Lin-lin,LI Shi,LIU Qing,GAO Shu-xin,JIANG Shan,ZHANG Jing,ZHANG Jing-xuan.Change characteristics of shallow ground temperature and its prediction during the sowing period in Shenyang[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2019,35(4):93-99. |
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| Authors: | SONG Xiao-wei LI Lin-lin LI Shi LIU Qing GAO Shu-xin JIANG Shan ZHANG Jing ZHANG Jing-xuan |
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| Institution: | 1. Shenyang Meteorological Service, Shenyang 110168, China;2. Liaoning Institute of Meteorological Sciences, Shenyang 110166, China;3. Xinmin Meteorological Service, Xinmin 110300, China |
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| Abstract: | For understanding the change rule of ground temperature in Shenyang area,providing better forecast service on field temperature,reducing the risk of sowing and improving grain production safety,based on the data of air and ground temperature from the seven meteorological stations in Shenyang area from 1981 to 2015, the change rules of air and ground temperature in recent 35 years were analyzed using mathematical statistics methods and a ground temperature forecasting model for the spring sowing period (April and May) was established.The results show that from 1981 to 2010,the decadal temperature shows an increasing trend and the change of air temperature results in an obvious change of ground temperature.The climate tendency rates of air and ground temperature are between 0.426℃/10 a and 0.549℃/10 a.In the past 35 years,the differences of ground temperature at the soil depth of 0-5 cm,5-10 cm,and 10-20 cm are 1.5℃,0.5℃,and 0.5℃ during April and October,respectively.The ground temperature at the soil depth of 0-20 cm and air temperature undergo a climate abrupt change in 1996,affecting the changing trend of temperature.During the spring sowing period,the differences between air temperature and ground temperature at the soil depth of 0 cm,5 cm and 10 cm in the western region change respectively from the low value in April to the high value in May.The t-test of the ground temperature forecast model doesn't show significant difference at P=0.01 level,and the relative error is within ±10%,indicating that the model can be applied for the prediction of ground temperature during the spring sowing period (April and May) in Shenyang area. |
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| Keywords: | Shenyang area Ground temperature Sowing period Forecast |
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