| 不同地区温度变化对缺血性心脑血管疾病影响的比较研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 谭玉龙,尹岭,王式功,陈雷,谭元文,康延臻.不同地区温度变化对缺血性心脑血管疾病影响的比较研究[J].气象与环境学报,2019,35(3):94-99. |
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| 作者姓名： | 谭玉龙 尹岭 王式功 陈雷 谭元文 康延臻 |
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| 作者单位： | 成都信息工程大学大气科学学院,四川 成都,610225;中国人民解放军总医院,北京,100853;安徽省阜南县人民医院,安徽 阜南,236300;贵州省锦屏县卫生和计划生育局,贵州 锦屏,556700;兰州大学大气科学学院,气象环境与人体健康研究中心,甘肃 兰州730000 |
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| 基金项目： | 科技部十三五重点研发计划"心脑血管疾病高危人群综合筛查与防控与卫生经济学研究"（2017YFC1307705）、中国气象局软科学研究项目重点项目"医学气象学服务与全民大健康的应用研究"（2019ZDIANX09）和国家重点研发计划"全球变化及应对"重点专项"黑碳的农业与生活源排放对东亚气候、空气质量的影响及其气候-健康效益评估"（2016YFA0602004）共同资助。 |
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| 摘 要： | 本文综合探究了日平均气温、24h变温和气温日较差变化对缺血性心脑血管疾病发病人数的影响,采用分布滞后非线性模型(DLNM)与广义相加模型(GAM),分别探析了2015—2016年安徽省阜南县和贵州省锦屏县日平均气温、24h变温和气温日较差与缺血性心脑血管住院病人数的暴露—反应关系。结果表明:气温日较差大于15℃缺血性心脑血管疾病相对风险剧烈升高,并呈现明显的即时效应,且其相对风险随滞后日增加和气温日较差增加达到叠加效应的峰值。当24h内气温下降7℃以上,缺血性心脑血管疾病相对风险开始明显上升,下降10℃以上呈现显著的即时效应。统计分析发现,两县在春季达到上述阈值概率最高,因此缺血性心脑血管疾病住院人数也在春季达到峰值,特别是雨水至清明节气时段为两县住院人数共同最高峰时段;值得注意的是,地处西部的锦屏县夏季缺血性心脑血管疾病发病人数也较多。此外,降温过程与节气转换也是导致两县缺血性心脑血管疾病住院人数阶段性增多的主要天气与气候因素。
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| 关 键 词： | 缺血性心脑血管疾病 24h变温 气温日较差 分布滞后非线性模型 广义相加模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2018-10-15 |
Comparative research of the effects of temperature change on ischemic cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in different regions |
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| TAN Yu-long,YIN Ling,WANG Shi-gong,CHEN Lei,TAN Yuan-wen,KANG Yan-zhen.Comparative research of the effects of temperature change on ischemic cardio-cerebrovascular diseases in different regions[J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,2019,35(3):94-99. |
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| Authors: | TAN Yu-long YIN Ling WANG Shi-gong CHEN Lei TAN Yuan-wen KANG Yan-zhen |
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| Institution: | 1. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Chengdu University of Information Technology, Chengdu 610225, China;2. The General Hospital of the People's Liberation Army, Beijing 100853, China;3. Fu'nan County People's Hospital, Fu'nan 236300, China;4. Health and Family Planning Bureau, Jinping 556700, China;5. College of Atmospheric Sciences, Lanzhou University, Center for Meteorological Environment and Human Health, Lanzhou 730000, China |
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| Abstract: | The influences of the variations of ambient temperature,daily temperature range (DTR) and temperature change between neighboring days (ΔT24),respectively,on the inducement of ischemic cardio-cerebrovascular diseases (ICCVD) were investigated.Distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) and generalized additive model (GAM) were applied to analyze the exposure-response relationships between ICCVD inpatients and changes of ambient temperature,DTR and ΔT24 in Fu'nan and Jinping County in Anhui province from 2015 to 2016,respectively.The results demonstrated that when DTR fluctuates more than 15℃,the ICCVD relative risk surges instantaneously and shows an immediate effect.Finally,the risk reaches a peak value of overlapping effect with lagging days and DTR increasing.In addition,the ICCVD relative risk increases obviously and indicates a significant immediate effect when the decreasing amplitudes of ΔT24 are over 7℃ and 10℃,respectively.Statistical analysis results demonstrate that the probability of reaching the above-mentioned thresholds in the two counties is higher in spring than in other seasons.Therefore,it is simultaneously discovered that the amounts of ICCVD inpatients in Fu'nan and Jinping Counties tend to reach the peaks in spring,especially from Rain Water to Ching Ming in the lunar calendar.Notably,the amount of the inpatients in Jinping county located in the west of Anhui province in summer is also numerous.Moreover,periodically increasing of the amount of ICCVD inpatients is ascribed by two main weather and climate factors,that is,the cooling process and the alternation of the solar terms. |
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| Keywords: | Ischemic cerebro-cardiovascular diseases(ICCVD) Temperature change between neighboring days(ΔT24) Daily temperature range(DTR) Distributed lag nonlinear model (DLNM) Generalized Additive Model (GAM) |
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