| 滑坡时间预测预报研究进展 |
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| 引用本文： | 许强,黄润秋,李秀珍.滑坡时间预测预报研究进展[J].地球科学进展,2004,19(3):478-483. |
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| 作者姓名： | 许强 黄润秋 李秀珍 |
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| 作者单位： | 成都理工大学地质灾害防治与地质环境保护国家专业实验室,四川,成都,610059 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金项目“水库诱发型滑坡成因机理及其预测预报研究”(编号 :40 172 0 96)，高等学校优秀青年教师教学科研奖励计划及重大基础研究前期研究专项计划 (编号 :2 0 0 2cccd15 0 0 )资助 |
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| 摘 要： | 我国是一个深受滑坡灾害困扰的国家，每年由滑坡所造成的经济损失异常惨重。因此，滑坡预测预报已成为人们研究的一个热点问题。对滑坡时间预测预报的研究现状和研究进展作了系统地总结，重点探讨了滑坡预报模型（包括定量预报模型、定性预报模型以及GMD预报模型等）、预报判据研究方面的进展，提出了滑坡综合信息预报的思路及具体的实施技术路线。
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| 关 键 词： | 滑坡预报 预报模型 预报判据 综合预报 GIS 专家系统 |
| 文章编号： | 1001-8166(2004)03-0478-06 |
| 修稿时间： | 2004年4月9日 |
RESEARCH PROGRESS IN TIME FORECAST AND PREDICTION OF LANDSLIDES |
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| XU Qiang,HUANG Run-qiu,LI Xiu-zhen.RESEARCH PROGRESS IN TIME FORECAST AND PREDICTION OF LANDSLIDES[J].Advance in Earth Sciences,2004,19(3):478-483. |
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| Authors: | XU Qiang HUANG Run-qiu LI Xiu-zhen |
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| Institution: | National Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, Chengdu 610059, China |
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| Abstract: | China is one of nations deeply puzzled by landslide disaster, the economic loss caused by landslides every year is very serious. Therefore, the landslide forcast and prediction has become a hot topic studied by people. In this paper, the research present situation and progress on the landslide time prediction are systematically summarized, especially, the progress is emphatically discussed about the landslide forecast models (including quantitative forecast models、qualitative forecast model as well as GMD forecast model and so on) and the forecast criterions, and the comprehensive information prediction and its specific technology route are proposed. |
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| Keywords: | Landslide prediction Prediction model Prediction criterion Comprehensive prediction GIS Expert system |
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