The Potential of Fuzzy Multi-objective Model for Rainfall Forecasting from Typhoons |
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| Authors: | Email author" target="_blank">Pao-Shan?YuEmail author Shien-Tsung?Chen Chia-Jung?Chen Tao-Chang?Yang |
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| Institution: | (1) Department of Hydraulic and Ocean Engineering, National Cheng-Kung University, Tainan, Taiwan;(2) Department of Industrial Management, Fortune Institute of Technology, Kaohsiung, Taiwan;(3) Department of Information Management, Hsing-Kuo University of Management, Tainan, Taiwan |
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| Abstract: | This study applies the fuzzy multi-objective approach to forecast short-term (around 24 h) typhoon rainfall, which can be implemented without much background meteorological knowledge. The physical characteristics of 40 typhoons, including route, central pressure, central velocity and cyclonic radius, were used as the data set. The fuzzy multi-objective method  mined information from the database to forecast both the depth and pattern of rainfall, which were then combined to estimate a cumulative rainfall curve. The results of calibration with reference to 40 historical typhoon events and the results of validation using another five typhoon events indicate that the proposed model has the potential to forecast short-term cumulative rainfall curves if more variables can be included and more historical typhoon events can be collected to enlarge the database. |
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| Keywords: | rainfall forecasting fuzzy multi-objective model typhoons |
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