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| 长江干流径流的时序结构与长期记忆 | |
| 引用本文： | 王国杰,姜彤,陈桂亚.长江干流径流的时序结构与长期记忆[J].地理学报,2006,61(1):47-56. |
| 作者姓名： | 王国杰 姜彤 陈桂亚 |
| 作者单位： | 1. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京,210008;中国科学院研究生院,北京,100039 2. 中国科学院南京地理与湖泊研究所,南京,210008 3. 长江水利委员会水文局,武汉,430010 |
| 基金项目： | 中国科学院知识创新工程项目;中国科学院资助项目 |
| 摘 要： | 基于宜昌、汉口、大通3个典型控制站的长期月径流序列，本文采用奇异谱分析方法、消除波动趋势法（DFA）等手段，识别长江干流径流序列的趋势、突变、周期振荡等时序结构及其长期记忆特征。主要结论有：①长江干流径流序列存在明显的准15年周期振荡特征，该周期振荡1970s以来受到某种扰动而弱化：②宜昌站径流序列于1926年、1970年发生两次突变，均以径流减少为特征：汉口站径流序列于1955a发生突变．也以径流减少为特征：大通站径流于1955年、1988年发生两次突变．前者以径流减少为特征，后者以增加为特征：③长江干流月径流序列存在较强的确定性成分，长期记忆特征明显：集水面积越大，径流序列的长期记忆越强．表现出明显的记忆累积效应。 |
| 关 键 词： | 径流序列 时序结构 长期记忆 长江 |
| 收稿时间： | 2005-08-11 |
| 修稿时间： | 2005-11-03 |
Structure and Long-term Memory of Discharge Series in Yangtze River |
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| WANG Guojie,JIANG Tong,CHEN Guiya.Structure and Long-term Memory of Discharge Series in Yangtze River[J].Acta Geographica Sinica,2006,61(1):47-56. | |
| Authors: | WANG Guojie JIANG Tong CHEN Guiya |
| Institution: | 1. Nanjing Institute of Geography and Limnology, CAS, Nanjing 210008, China; 2. Graduate School of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100039, China; 3. Bureau of Hydrology, Changjiang Water Resources Commission, Wuhan 430010, China |
| Abstract: | Based on the long-term monthly discharge series of Yichang, Hankou and Datong stations, this paper has explored the discharge series structure of periodicity, trend and abrupt changes as well as its long-term momery with Singular Spectum Analysis, and Detrended Fluctuation Analysis in employment. The results revealed that: 1) there is a significant 15a periodicity in the discharge series of the Yangtze River, and the 15a periodicity has been disturbed since the 1970s; 2) two abrupt and negative changes of Yichang series respectively in 1926 and 1970 have been detected in Hankou series in 1954; two abrupt changes occurred in Datong series respectively in 1955 and 1988, the former negative and the latter positive; and 3) the performance of DFA revealed a long memory in the discharge series of the Yangtze River, and the larger the upslope contributing area is, the stronger the long memory, which exhibits a cumulative effect. |
| Keywords: | discharge series time series structure long-term memory Yangtze River |
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