Climate Suitability: For Stable Malaria Transmission in Zimbabwe Under Different Climate Change Scenarios |
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| Authors: | Jessica Hartman Kristie Ebi K John McConnell Nathan Chan John Weyant |
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| Institution: | (1) Stanford University, 205 E. 78th Apt. 19A, NY, NY, 10021, e-mail;(2) EPRI, 3412 Hillview Ave, Palo Alto, CA, 94304, e-mail;(3) Institute for Health Policy Studies, University of California at San Francisco, San Francisco, CA, 94118, e-mail;(4) Stanford University, 685 Mariposa Ave #6, Mountain View, CA, 94041 tel;(5) Stanford University, Stanford, CA, 94305-4023, e-mail |
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| Abstract: | As climate is one factor determining the potential range of malaria, climate change may work with or against efforts to bring
malaria under control. We developed a model of future climate suitability for stable Plasmodium falciparum malaria transmission in Zimbabwe. Current climate suitability for stable malaria transmission is based on the MARA/ARMA model
of climatic constraints on the survival and development of the Anopheles vector and the Plasmodium falciparum malaria parasite. We explored potential future geographic distributions of malaria using sixteen projections of climate in
2100. The results suggest that, assuming no future human-imposed constraints on malaria transmission, changes in temperature
and precipitation could alter the geographic distribution of malaria in Zimbabwe, with previously unsuitable areas of dense
human population becoming suitable for transmission. Among all scenarios, the highlands become more suitable for transmission,
while the lowveld and areas currently limited by precipitation show varying degrees of change, depending on climate sensitivity
and greenhouse gas emission stabilization scenarios, and depending on the general circulation model used. The methods employed
can be used within or across other African countries.
This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date. |
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