| 长三角区域一体化对城市碳排放的影响研究 |
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| 引用本文： | 郭艺,曹贤忠,魏文栋,曾刚.长三角区域一体化对城市碳排放的影响研究[J].地理研究,2022,41(1):181-192. |
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| 作者姓名： | 郭艺 曹贤忠 魏文栋 曾刚 |
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| 作者单位： | 1. 华东师范大学中国现代城市研究中心,上海 2000622. 华东师范大学城市与区域科学学院,上海 2002413. 上海交通大学国际与公共事务学院,上海 200030 |
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| 基金项目： | 国家自然科学基金重点项目（42130510）;国家自然科学基金面上项目（42171184）;国家自然科学基金青年项目（71904125）； |
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| 摘 要： | 长三角地区是中国高质量一体化发展的示范区,也是实现“双碳”目标的重要区域。在中国行政区经济向一体化经济转变的背景下,长三角区域一体化政策在降低行政壁垒,优化要素配置的同时,产生了怎样的碳排放效应?本文基于中国地级及以上城市的面板数据,以2010年《长江三角洲地区区域规划》的颁布视作一项准自然实验,运用双重差分（DID）模型,研究长三角区域一体化对城市碳排放的影响。在此基础上,采用中介效应模型,识别区域一体化碳排放效应的内在机理。结果表明：2010 年实施的长三角一体化政策显著降低了城市碳排放,并经过共同趋势检验、PSM-DID、安慰剂检验等稳健性检验依然成立;从动态效应来看,区域一体化政策的碳减排效应出现在政策实施后的第三年;从城市等级来看,区域一体化政策对高等级城市碳排放减少的促进作用大于一般城市;从作用机理来看,区域一体化政策通过促进产业结构的升级和城市技术水平的提高,显著降低了城市碳排放,而通过城市间经济联系的增强,在一定程度上增加了城市碳排放。因此,建议建立长三角城市间碳减排与绿色发展的互动合作机制,构建可监测、可操作的绿色发展评价指标体系,加大长三角城市绿色科技联合攻关力度,推动产业低碳化发展。
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| 关 键 词： | 长三角地区 区域一体化政策 城市碳排放 准自然实验 中介效应模型 |
| 收稿时间： | 2021-06-15 |
The impact of regional integration in the Yangtze River Delta on urban carbon emissions |
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| GUO Yi,CAO Xianzhong,WEI Wendong,ZENG Gang.The impact of regional integration in the Yangtze River Delta on urban carbon emissions[J].Geographical Research,2022,41(1):181-192. |
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| Authors: | GUO Yi CAO Xianzhong WEI Wendong ZENG Gang |
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| Institution: | 1. The Center for Modern Chinese City Studies, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200062, China2. School of Urban and Regional Science, East China Normal University, Shanghai 200241, China3. School of International and Public Affairs, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200030, China |
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| Abstract: | The Yangtze River Delta is a demonstration area for China's high-quality integrated development and an important area for China to achieve its peak dioxide emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality targets by 2060. In the context of the transformation of China's administrative region economy to an integrated economy, the regional integration of the Yangtze River Delta has reduced administrative barriers and optimized the allocation of factors. At the same time, what impact does it have on urban carbon emissions? Based on the panel data of prefecture level and above cities in China, this paper regards the issuance of The Regional Planning of Yangtze River Delta as a quasi-natural experiment, using the difference-in-difference (DID) method to estimate the effects of regional integration in the study area on urban carbon emissions. Furthermore, by using the mediation effect model, we identify the possible internal mechanism of regional integration on carbon emission effects. The results showed that regional integration policy of this delta in 2010 significantly reduced urban carbon emissions, and after a series of robustness tests such as the parallel trend test, PSM-DID and placebo test were still true. From the perspective of dynamic effects, the carbon emission reduction effect appeared in the third year after the issuance of regional integration policy. At the same time, compared with general hierarchy cities, regional integration had a greater effect on carbon emissions reduction of high hierarchy cities. Mechanism verification showed that regional integration policy aggravated urban carbon emissions through the strengthening of economic links between cities, and reduced urban carbon emissions by promoting the upgrading of the industrial structure and the improvement of urban technology. From the perspective of better achieving the goal of high-quality integration in the Yangtze River Delta, it is suggested that the delta should actively explore the cooperation mechanism of carbon emission reduction and green development between cities, and establish a green development evaluation index system that can be monitored and operated. Besides, we should focus on the green transformation of industries and increase investment in green technology research and development among cities in the Yangtze River Delta. |
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| Keywords: | Yangtze River Delta regional integration policy urban carbon emissions quasinatural experiment mediation effect model |
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