Forecast of the solar wind velocity and the interplanetary magnetic field radial component polarity at the phase of decay of solar cycle 23 |
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| Authors: | I S Veselovsky I G Persiantsev Yu S Shugai |
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| Institution: | (1) Skobeltsyn Research Institute of Nuclear Physics, Moscow State University, Vorob’evy gory, Moscow, 119992, Russia;(2) Space Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences, Profsoyuznaya ul. 84/32, Moscow, 117810, Russia |
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| Abstract: | The solar wind velocity and polarity of the B x-component of the interplanetary magnetic field have been analyzed for the first eight months of 2005. The interplanetary magnetic field had a four-sector structure, which persisted during nine Carrington rotations. Three stable clusters of a high-speed solar wind stream and one cluster of a low-speed stream were observed during one solar rotation. These clusters were associated with the interplanetary magnetic field sectors. The predicted solar wind velocity was calculated since July 2005 one month ahead as an average over several preceding Carrington rotations. The polarity of the B x-component of the interplanetary magnetic field was predicted in a similar way based on the concept of the sector structure of the magnetic field and its relation to maxima of the solar wind velocity. The results indicate a satisfactory agreement of the forecast for two rotations ahead in July–August 2005 and pronounced violation of agreement for the next rotation due to a sudden reconfiguration of the solar corona and strong sporadic processes in September 2005. |
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