| Abstract: | The problem of simulation of possible scenarios of the development of processes running in ecological economic systems is studied as a part of the general problem of control over natural economic complexes. The consumption of mineral, food, and ecological resources is regarded as credits given by the society to the producer and then refunded as a part of his gains. If this nature-protective tax does not compensate the damage to the environment caused by production, then the debt of the producer (called accumulated credit) appears and, finally, the process of consumption of the resources is terminated. A universal simulation model is constructed by using a new method of adaptive balance of causes (ABC method). We present basic concepts of this method and some examples of application of the simulation model to the analysis of various scenarios of consumption of marine bioresources under variable economic conditions for a marine environment with variable assimilation capacity. |
