| 利用灰色模型对耕地面积动态分析及预测 |
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| 引用本文： | 王荣蓬.利用灰色模型对耕地面积动态分析及预测[J].山东地质,2008(6):46-48. |
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| 作者姓名： | 王荣蓬 |
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| 作者单位： | 蓬莱市国土资源局,山东蓬莱265600 |
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| 摘 要： | 基于1989-1998年蓬莱市北沟镇和徐家集镇的耕地总量，利用灰色系统建立GM（1，1）模型，对2镇1999-2008年的耕地总量进行预测，并分析了变化趋势。预测结果显示，耕地总量将呈现出持续减少的趋势，合理利用和保护耕地资源是刻不容缓的任务。
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| 关 键 词： | 灰色系统 GM(1 1)模型 动态变化分析 变化趋势 山东蓬莱 |
Dynamic Analysis and Predication of Cultivated Land Square by Using Grey Model |
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| WANG Rong-peng.Dynamic Analysis and Predication of Cultivated Land Square by Using Grey Model[J].Geology of Shandong,2008(6):46-48. |
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| Authors: | WANG Rong-peng |
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| Institution: | WANG Rong-peng (Penglai Bureau of Land and Resources, Shandong Penglai 265600, China) |
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| Abstract: | Through analysis on condition and characteristics of cultivated land resource in Penglai city, on the basis of statistic datas of the cultivated land in Beigou town and Xujiaji town in Penglai city from 1989 to 1998, by using gray system, GM （1,1） model is set up, and cultivated land area from 1999 to 2008 in these two towns are predicated and variation trend is analyzed as well. As showed by the predication result, total amount of cultivated land will decrease continuously. Thus, it is very urget to use and protect cultivated land resource reasonably. |
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| Keywords: | Grey system GM（ 1 1）model dynamic variation analysis variation trend predication Penglai city |
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